FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.182.50safe0.35–2.280.32–2.040.67–4.32safer0.09–2.540.07–2.290.17–4.83actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
55%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.443.598.03safe2.58–6.291.88–5.304.46–11.59safer2.08–6.791.41–5.763.49–12.56
Total shots
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8511.0421.89safe7.15–14.557.66–14.4214.81–28.97safer6.12–15.596.73–15.3512.85–30.93
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction10.015.9215.93safe7.50–12.533.62–8.2211.11–20.75safer6.63–13.402.82–9.029.45–22.41
Blocked shots
64%
15%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.662.305.95safe2.07–5.240.88–3.712.95–8.95safer1.54–5.770.39–4.201.93–9.97
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.5910.17safe3.37–7.782.62–6.575.98–14.35safer2.77–8.372.08–7.114.85–15.48
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction56.8142.81safe50.49–63.1336.50–49.13safer48.90–64.7234.90–50.73
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction489327816safe424–554262–391686–946safer406–572245–409651–981
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction77.5765.17safe73.35–81.7860.66–69.68safer72.05–83.0959.33–71.01
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4610.7321.20safe7.61–13.327.79–13.6815.39–27.00safer6.72–14.216.87–14.5913.59–28.80
Offsides
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.893.79safe0.69–3.110.73–3.051.42–6.16safer0.34–3.450.40–3.390.74–6.84
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.903.35safe0.40–2.510.78–3.021.17–5.52safer0.12–2.780.49–3.310.61–6.09
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
43%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.635.35safe1.31–4.131.07–4.182.38–8.31safer0.92–4.520.64–4.611.56–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.54 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.29 | 3.00 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.17–4.83 | 5.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.29 2.08–6.79 | — | 3.59 1.88–5.30 1.41–5.76 | — | 8.03 4.46–11.59 3.49–12.56 | — | 55% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 10.85 7.15–14.55 6.12–15.59 | — | 11.04 7.66–14.42 6.73–15.35 | — | 21.89 14.81–28.97 12.85–30.93 | — | 44% 47% |
| Shots in box | 10.01 7.50–12.53 6.63–13.40 | — | 5.92 3.62–8.22 2.82–9.02 | — | 15.93 11.11–20.75 9.45–22.41 | — | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 2.07–5.24 1.54–5.77 | — | 2.30 0.88–3.71 0.39–4.20 | — | 5.95 2.95–8.95 1.93–9.97 | — | 64% 15% 22% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.37–7.78 2.77–8.37 | — | 4.59 2.62–6.57 2.08–7.11 | — | 10.17 5.98–14.35 4.85–15.48 | — | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 56.81 50.49–63.13 48.90–64.72 | — | 42.81 36.50–49.13 34.90–50.73 | — | — | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 489 424–554 406–572 | — | 327 262–391 245–409 | — | 816 686–946 651–981 | — | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.57 73.35–81.78 72.05–83.09 | — | 65.17 60.66–69.68 59.33–71.01 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 10.46 7.61–13.32 6.72–14.21 | — | 10.73 7.79–13.68 6.87–14.59 | — | 21.20 15.39–27.00 13.59–28.80 | — | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.34–3.45 | — | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.40–3.39 | — | 3.79 1.42–6.16 0.74–6.84 | — | 39% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.51 0.12–2.78 | — | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | — | 3.35 1.17–5.52 0.61–6.09 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | — | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.31–4.13 0.92–4.52 | — | 2.63 1.07–4.18 0.64–4.61 | — | 5.35 2.38–8.31 1.56–9.14 | — | 43% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.