FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.712.95safe0.28–2.200.85–2.571.13–4.77safer0.02–2.460.60–2.810.62–5.28actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.509.69safe2.33–6.043.79–7.216.12–13.25safer1.83–6.543.33–7.685.15–14.22
Total shots
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1813.5523.74safe6.48–13.8910.17–16.9316.65–30.82safer5.45–14.929.24–17.8614.69–32.78
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.898.5313.41safe2.37–7.406.22–10.838.59–18.23safer1.51–8.275.43–11.626.93–19.89
Blocked shots
42%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.527.04safe1.93–5.102.10–4.934.04–10.03safer1.40–5.641.62–5.423.02–11.06
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.314.769.08safe2.11–6.522.79–6.744.89–13.26safer1.51–7.112.25–7.283.76–14.39
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.2757.86safe34.95–47.5951.55–64.18safer33.36–49.1849.95–65.78
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction309475784safe243–374411–540654–914safer226–392393–557619–949
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction61.0473.32safe56.83–65.2668.82–77.83safer55.52–66.5667.49–79.16
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4213.5425.97safe9.57–15.2810.60–16.4920.16–31.77safer8.68–16.179.68–17.4118.36–33.57
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.843.54safe0.49–2.910.68–3.001.17–5.91safer0.15–3.250.35–3.340.49–6.59
Yellow cards
34%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.843.46safe0.57–2.680.72–2.961.29–5.64safer0.29–2.950.43–3.250.72–6.20
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.040.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.230.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.985.30safe0.91–3.741.42–4.532.33–8.27safer0.52–4.130.99–4.961.51–9.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 0.00 | 1.71 0.85–2.57 0.60–2.81 | 2.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 2.00 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.33–6.04 1.83–6.54 | — | 5.50 3.79–7.21 3.33–7.68 | — | 9.69 6.12–13.25 5.15–14.22 | — | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 10.18 6.48–13.89 5.45–14.92 | — | 13.55 10.17–16.93 9.24–17.86 | — | 23.74 16.65–30.82 14.69–32.78 | — | 21% 72% |
| Shots in box | 4.89 2.37–7.40 1.51–8.27 | — | 8.53 6.22–10.83 5.43–11.62 | — | 13.41 8.59–18.23 6.93–19.89 | — | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.93–5.10 1.40–5.64 | — | 3.52 2.10–4.93 1.62–5.42 | — | 7.04 4.04–10.03 3.02–11.06 | — | 42% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.31 2.11–6.52 1.51–7.11 | — | 4.76 2.79–6.74 2.25–7.28 | — | 9.08 4.89–13.26 3.76–14.39 | — | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 41.27 34.95–47.59 33.36–49.18 | — | 57.86 51.55–64.18 49.95–65.78 | — | — | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 309 243–374 226–392 | — | 475 411–540 393–557 | — | 784 654–914 619–949 | — | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.04 56.83–65.26 55.52–66.56 | — | 73.32 68.82–77.83 67.49–79.16 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.57–15.28 8.68–16.17 | — | 13.54 10.60–16.49 9.68–17.41 | — | 25.97 20.16–31.77 18.36–33.57 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | — | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.35–3.34 | — | 3.54 1.17–5.91 0.49–6.59 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.68 0.29–2.95 | — | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | — | 3.46 1.29–5.64 0.72–6.20 | — | 34% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.91–3.74 0.52–4.13 | — | 2.98 1.42–4.53 0.99–4.96 | — | 5.30 2.33–8.27 1.51–9.09 | — | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.