FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
40%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.422.93safe0.55–2.470.56–2.281.11–4.75safer0.29–2.730.31–2.520.60–5.26actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
46%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.479.17safe2.84–6.552.76–6.185.61–12.73safer2.34–7.052.30–6.654.64–13.70
Total shots
26%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5614.3725.93safe7.85–15.2610.99–17.7518.85–33.01safer6.82–16.2910.06–18.6816.89–34.97
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.326.6714.99safe5.81–10.844.37–8.9710.18–19.81safer4.94–11.703.57–9.778.51–21.47
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.442.786.22safe1.86–5.031.36–4.193.22–9.22safer1.33–5.560.88–4.682.20–10.24
Corners
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.018.16safe1.95–6.362.03–5.993.98–12.35safer1.35–6.961.49–6.522.85–13.48
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.9251.54safe42.60–55.2445.22–57.86safer41.01–56.8343.63–59.46
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction417407825safe352–483343–472695–955safer334–500325–490660–990
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction72.5771.09safe68.35–76.7866.58–75.60safer67.05–78.0865.25–76.93
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4811.1622.64safe8.62–14.348.22–14.1116.84–28.45safer7.74–15.227.30–15.0315.04–30.25
Offsides
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.893.78safe0.68–3.100.73–3.051.41–6.16safer0.34–3.450.40–3.390.74–6.83
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.673.22safe0.50–2.610.55–2.791.04–5.39safer0.22–2.880.25–3.080.48–5.96
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.865.66safe1.39–4.221.30–4.412.69–8.63safer1.00–4.610.87–4.841.87–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.47 0.29–2.73 | 4.00 | 1.42 0.56–2.28 0.31–2.52 | 2.00 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.60–5.26 | 6.00 | 40% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.55 2.34–7.05 | — | 4.47 2.76–6.18 2.30–6.65 | — | 9.17 5.61–12.73 4.64–13.70 | — | 46% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 11.56 7.85–15.26 6.82–16.29 | — | 14.37 10.99–17.75 10.06–18.68 | — | 25.93 18.85–33.01 16.89–34.97 | — | 26% 68% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.81–10.84 4.94–11.70 | — | 6.67 4.37–8.97 3.57–9.77 | — | 14.99 10.18–19.81 8.51–21.47 | — | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.86–5.03 1.33–5.56 | — | 2.78 1.36–4.19 0.88–4.68 | — | 6.22 3.22–9.22 2.20–10.24 | — | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 4.15 1.95–6.36 1.35–6.96 | — | 4.01 2.03–5.99 1.49–6.52 | — | 8.16 3.98–12.35 2.85–13.48 | — | 45% 14% 41% |
| Possession % | 48.92 42.60–55.24 41.01–56.83 | — | 51.54 45.22–57.86 43.63–59.46 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 417 352–483 334–500 | — | 407 343–472 325–490 | — | 825 695–955 660–990 | — | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.57 68.35–76.78 67.05–78.08 | — | 71.09 66.58–75.60 65.25–76.93 | — | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.48 8.62–14.34 7.74–15.22 | — | 11.16 8.22–14.11 7.30–15.03 | — | 22.64 16.84–28.45 15.04–30.25 | — | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.34–3.45 | — | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.40–3.39 | — | 3.78 1.41–6.16 0.74–6.83 | — | 39% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.22–2.88 | — | 1.67 0.55–2.79 0.25–3.08 | — | 3.22 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.96 | — | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | — | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.39–4.22 1.00–4.61 | — | 2.86 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.84 | — | 5.66 2.69–8.63 1.87–9.45 | — | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.