FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.192.54safe0.39–2.320.33–2.050.72–4.37safer0.13–2.580.09–2.300.21–4.87actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.9910.30safe3.46–7.173.28–6.706.74–13.86safer2.96–7.672.81–7.175.77–14.83
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3610.5722.93safe8.66–16.077.19–13.9515.85–30.01safer7.63–17.106.26–14.8813.89–31.98
Shots in box
14%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.998.4113.40safe2.48–7.516.11–10.718.58–18.22safer1.61–8.375.31–11.516.92–19.88
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.446.31safe1.29–4.462.03–4.863.32–9.31safer0.75–4.991.54–5.342.29–10.33
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.984.269.24safe2.78–7.192.28–6.245.06–13.43safer2.18–7.781.74–6.783.93–14.56
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction46.8352.57safe40.51–53.1446.25–58.89safer38.91–54.7444.65–60.49
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction356415771safe290–421350–480641–901safer273–439333–497606–936
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction62.8169.25safe58.59–67.0364.74–73.75safer57.29–68.3363.41–75.08
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4213.6226.05safe9.57–15.2810.68–16.5720.24–31.85safer8.68–16.179.76–17.4918.44–33.65
Offsides
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.743.43safe0.48–2.900.58–2.901.06–5.81safer0.14–3.250.24–3.230.38–6.48
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.893.57safe0.63–2.740.77–3.011.39–5.75safer0.36–3.010.48–3.300.83–6.31
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.040.12safe0.00–0.230.00–0.230.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.845.32safe1.06–3.891.29–4.402.35–8.29safer0.67–4.280.86–4.831.53–9.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.13–2.58 | 0.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 2.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.21–4.87 | 2.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.31 3.46–7.17 2.96–7.67 | — | 4.99 3.28–6.70 2.81–7.17 | — | 10.30 6.74–13.86 5.77–14.83 | — | 48% 40% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.66–16.07 7.63–17.10 | — | 10.57 7.19–13.95 6.26–14.88 | — | 22.93 15.85–30.01 13.89–31.98 | — | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 4.99 2.48–7.51 1.61–8.37 | — | 8.41 6.11–10.71 5.31–11.51 | — | 13.40 8.58–18.22 6.92–19.88 | — | 14% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 2.87 1.29–4.46 0.75–4.99 | — | 3.44 2.03–4.86 1.54–5.34 | — | 6.31 3.32–9.31 2.29–10.33 | — | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 4.98 2.78–7.19 2.18–7.78 | — | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.74–6.78 | — | 9.24 5.06–13.43 3.93–14.56 | — | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 46.83 40.51–53.14 38.91–54.74 | — | 52.57 46.25–58.89 44.65–60.49 | — | — | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 356 290–421 273–439 | — | 415 350–480 333–497 | — | 771 641–901 606–936 | — | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.81 58.59–67.03 57.29–68.33 | — | 69.25 64.74–73.75 63.41–75.08 | — | — | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.57–15.28 8.68–16.17 | — | 13.62 10.68–16.57 9.76–17.49 | — | 26.05 20.24–31.85 18.44–33.65 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.25 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.24–3.23 | — | 3.43 1.06–5.81 0.38–6.48 | — | 38% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.74 0.36–3.01 | — | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | — | 3.57 1.39–5.75 0.83–6.31 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.06–3.89 0.67–4.28 | — | 2.84 1.29–4.40 0.86–4.83 | — | 5.32 2.35–8.29 1.53–9.11 | — | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+