FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.092.69safe0.64–2.570.23–1.950.87–4.52safer0.38–2.830.00–2.190.37–5.02actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
92%
homeawaytotalprediction5.021.126.14safe3.16–6.880.00–2.832.58–9.70safer2.66–7.370.00–3.301.61–10.67
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.976.9619.93safe9.27–16.683.58–10.3412.85–27.02safer8.24–17.712.65–11.2710.89–28.98
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction7.063.0610.12safe4.54–9.570.76–5.365.30–14.94safer3.68–10.440.00–6.163.64–16.60
Blocked shots
63%
17%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.761.544.30safe1.18–4.340.12–2.951.30–7.30safer0.64–4.880.00–3.440.28–8.32
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.289.76safe3.27–7.682.30–6.265.57–13.94safer2.68–8.281.76–6.804.44–15.07
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction55.8943.80safe49.58–62.2137.48–50.12safer47.98–63.8135.89–51.72
Passes
85%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction459336795safe394–525271–400665–925safer376–542253–418630–960
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction74.6865.21safe70.47–78.9060.70–69.71safer69.17–80.2059.37–71.05
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7010.9521.65safe7.84–13.568.01–13.9015.85–27.45safer6.96–14.447.09–14.8114.05–29.26
Offsides
49%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.723.89safe0.97–3.380.56–2.881.52–6.27safer0.62–3.730.22–3.210.85–6.94
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.783.25safe0.41–2.530.66–2.901.08–5.43safer0.14–2.800.37–3.190.51–5.99
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.025.29safe0.86–3.691.46–4.572.33–8.26safer0.47–4.081.03–5.001.50–9.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.57 0.38–2.83 | 3.00 | 1.09 0.23–1.95 0.00–2.19 | 0.00 | 2.69 0.87–4.52 0.37–5.02 | 3.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.88 2.66–7.37 | — | 1.12 0.00–2.83 0.00–3.30 | — | 6.14 2.58–9.70 1.61–10.67 | — | 92% |
| Total shots | 12.97 9.27–16.68 8.24–17.71 | — | 6.96 3.58–10.34 2.65–11.27 | — | 19.93 12.85–27.02 10.89–28.98 | — | 89% |
| Shots in box | 7.06 4.54–9.57 3.68–10.44 | — | 3.06 0.76–5.36 0.00–6.16 | — | 10.12 5.30–14.94 3.64–16.60 | — | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 2.76 1.18–4.34 0.64–4.88 | — | 1.54 0.12–2.95 0.00–3.44 | — | 4.30 1.30–7.30 0.28–8.32 | — | 63% 17% 20% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.68 2.68–8.28 | — | 4.28 2.30–6.26 1.76–6.80 | — | 9.76 5.57–13.94 4.44–15.07 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 55.89 49.58–62.21 47.98–63.81 | — | 43.80 37.48–50.12 35.89–51.72 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 459 394–525 376–542 | — | 336 271–400 253–418 | — | 795 665–925 630–960 | — | 85% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.68 70.47–78.90 69.17–80.20 | — | 65.21 60.70–69.71 59.37–71.05 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 10.70 7.84–13.56 6.96–14.44 | — | 10.95 8.01–13.90 7.09–14.81 | — | 21.65 15.85–27.45 14.05–29.26 | — | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.97–3.38 0.62–3.73 | — | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.22–3.21 | — | 3.89 1.52–6.27 0.85–6.94 | — | 49% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.41–2.53 0.14–2.80 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.25 1.08–5.43 0.51–5.99 | — | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.86–3.69 0.47–4.08 | — | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | — | 5.29 2.33–8.26 1.50–9.08 | — | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.