FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.122.42safe0.34–2.260.26–1.980.59–4.24safer0.08–2.520.01–2.220.09–4.74actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.568.38safe2.96–6.671.85–5.274.82–11.94safer2.46–7.171.38–5.743.85–12.91
Total shots
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.567.9418.50safe6.86–14.274.56–11.3211.42–25.58safer5.83–15.303.63–12.259.46–27.55
Shots in box
51%
26%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.520.932.45safe0.00–4.030.00–3.230.00–7.27safer0.00–4.900.00–4.030.00–8.93
Blocked shots
34%
52%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.520.250.78safe0.00–2.110.00–1.670.00–3.77safer0.00–2.640.00–2.150.00–4.80
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.858.84safe2.78–7.191.88–5.834.66–13.03safer2.19–7.791.34–6.373.53–14.16
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.2247.02safe45.90–58.5440.70–53.34safer44.30–60.1339.10–54.94
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction404354758safe339–469290–419628–888safer321–487272–436593–923
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction67.9066.65safe63.69–72.1262.14–71.15safer62.39–73.4260.81–72.49
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6012.8226.42safe10.74–16.469.88–15.7720.62–32.22safer9.86–17.348.96–16.6818.81–34.03
Offsides
37%
30%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.012.10safe0.00–2.300.00–2.170.00–4.47safer0.00–2.650.00–2.500.00–5.15
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.873.45safe0.53–2.640.75–2.991.28–5.63safer0.26–2.910.46–3.280.72–6.19
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
34%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.184.07safe0.47–3.300.63–3.741.10–7.04safer0.08–3.690.20–4.170.28–7.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.34–2.26 0.08–2.52 | 4.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.01–2.22 | 1.00 | 2.42 0.59–4.24 0.09–4.74 | 5.00 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.82 2.96–6.67 2.46–7.17 | — | 3.56 1.85–5.27 1.38–5.74 | — | 8.38 4.82–11.94 3.85–12.91 | — | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 10.56 6.86–14.27 5.83–15.30 | — | 7.94 4.56–11.32 3.63–12.25 | — | 18.50 11.42–25.58 9.46–27.55 | — | 69% 23% |
| Shots in box | 1.52 0.00–4.03 0.00–4.90 | — | 0.93 0.00–3.23 0.00–4.03 | — | 2.45 0.00–7.27 0.00–8.93 | — | 51% 26% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.52 0.00–2.11 0.00–2.64 | — | 0.25 0.00–1.67 0.00–2.15 | — | 0.78 0.00–3.77 0.00–4.80 | — | 34% 52% 14% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.78–7.19 2.19–7.79 | — | 3.85 1.88–5.83 1.34–6.37 | — | 8.84 4.66–13.03 3.53–14.16 | — | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.22 45.90–58.54 44.30–60.13 | — | 47.02 40.70–53.34 39.10–54.94 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 404 339–469 321–487 | — | 354 290–419 272–436 | — | 758 628–888 593–923 | — | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.90 63.69–72.12 62.39–73.42 | — | 66.65 62.14–71.15 60.81–72.49 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 13.60 10.74–16.46 9.86–17.34 | — | 12.82 9.88–15.77 8.96–16.68 | — | 26.42 20.62–32.22 18.81–34.03 | — | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.09 0.00–2.30 0.00–2.65 | — | 1.01 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.50 | — | 2.10 0.00–4.47 0.00–5.15 | — | 37% 30% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.64 0.26–2.91 | — | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | — | 3.45 1.28–5.63 0.72–6.19 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.89 0.47–3.30 0.08–3.69 | — | 2.18 0.63–3.74 0.20–4.17 | — | 4.07 1.10–7.04 0.28–7.86 | — | 34% 20% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.