FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
63%
20%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.013.17safe1.19–3.120.15–1.871.35–4.99safer0.93–3.380.00–2.120.84–5.50actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.543.428.96safe3.68–7.391.72–5.135.39–12.52safer3.18–7.891.25–5.604.43–13.49
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction12.727.6720.39safe9.02–16.434.29–11.0513.31–27.48safer7.99–17.463.36–11.9811.35–29.44
Shots in box
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.092.39safe0.00–3.820.00–3.390.00–7.21safer0.00–4.690.00–4.180.00–8.87
Blocked shots
37%
50%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.590.250.84safe0.00–2.170.00–1.670.00–3.84safer0.00–2.710.00–2.150.00–4.86
Corners
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5.963.289.24safe3.75–8.161.30–5.265.06–13.42safer3.16–8.760.77–5.803.92–14.56
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.2343.97safe48.91–61.5537.65–50.28safer47.31–63.1436.05–51.88
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction462355817safe397–527291–420687–947safer379–545273–438652–982
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction71.1266.95safe66.91–75.3462.44–71.46safer65.61–76.6461.11–72.79
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1611.9925.15safe10.30–16.019.05–14.9419.35–30.95safer9.42–16.908.13–15.8617.54–32.76
Offsides
51%
34%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.060.451.52safe0.00–2.270.00–1.610.00–3.89safer0.00–2.620.00–1.950.00–4.57
Yellow cards
27%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.853.14safe0.23–2.340.73–2.970.96–5.31safer0.00–2.610.44–3.260.40–5.87
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.953.25safe0.00–2.710.40–3.510.28–6.22safer0.00–3.100.00–3.940.00–7.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.16 1.19–3.12 0.93–3.38 | 0.00 | 1.01 0.15–1.87 0.00–2.12 | 2.00 | 3.17 1.35–4.99 0.84–5.50 | 2.00 | 63% 20% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.54 3.68–7.39 3.18–7.89 | — | 3.42 1.72–5.13 1.25–5.60 | — | 8.96 5.39–12.52 4.43–13.49 | — | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 12.72 9.02–16.43 7.99–17.46 | — | 7.67 4.29–11.05 3.36–11.98 | — | 20.39 13.31–27.48 11.35–29.44 | — | 85% |
| Shots in box | 1.31 0.00–3.82 0.00–4.69 | — | 1.09 0.00–3.39 0.00–4.18 | — | 2.39 0.00–7.21 0.00–8.87 | — | 42% 27% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 0.59 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.71 | — | 0.25 0.00–1.67 0.00–2.15 | — | 0.84 0.00–3.84 0.00–4.86 | — | 37% 50% 13% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.75–8.16 3.16–8.76 | — | 3.28 1.30–5.26 0.77–5.80 | — | 9.24 5.06–13.42 3.92–14.56 | — | 76% 14% |
| Possession % | 55.23 48.91–61.55 47.31–63.14 | — | 43.97 37.65–50.28 36.05–51.88 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 462 397–527 379–545 | — | 355 291–420 273–438 | — | 817 687–947 652–982 | — | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.12 66.91–75.34 65.61–76.64 | — | 66.95 62.44–71.46 61.11–72.79 | — | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 13.16 10.30–16.01 9.42–16.90 | — | 11.99 9.05–14.94 8.13–15.86 | — | 25.15 19.35–30.95 17.54–32.76 | — | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.06 0.00–2.27 0.00–2.62 | — | 0.45 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.95 | — | 1.52 0.00–3.89 0.00–4.57 | — | 51% 34% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.29 0.23–2.34 0.00–2.61 | — | 1.85 0.73–2.97 0.44–3.26 | — | 3.14 0.96–5.31 0.40–5.87 | — | 27% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.29 0.00–2.71 0.00–3.10 | — | 1.95 0.40–3.51 0.00–3.94 | — | 3.25 0.28–6.22 0.00–7.04 | — | 25% 22% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+