Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.112.66safe0.59–2.520.25–1.970.84–4.48safer0.33–2.780.00–2.210.33–4.99actual3.004.007.00
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.538.30safe2.91–6.621.83–5.244.74–11.86safer2.41–7.121.36–5.713.77–12.83
Total shots
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.687.8618.54safe6.98–14.384.48–11.2411.46–25.62safer5.94–15.413.55–12.179.49–27.58
Shots in box
46%
28%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.290.892.19safe0.00–3.810.00–3.190.00–7.00safer0.00–4.680.00–3.990.00–8.66
Blocked shots
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.520.210.73safe0.00–2.100.00–1.630.00–3.72safer0.00–2.630.00–2.110.00–4.75
Corners
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.183.398.57safe2.98–7.391.42–5.374.39–12.76safer2.38–7.980.88–5.913.26–13.89
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.0848.24safe44.76–57.4041.92–54.55safer43.17–58.9940.32–56.15
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction416399816safe351–482335–464686–945safer333–499317–482650–981
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction67.3367.83safe63.12–71.5563.32–72.34safer61.82–72.8561.99–73.67
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1012.9126.01safe10.24–15.959.96–15.8520.20–31.81safer9.35–16.849.05–16.7718.40–33.61
Offsides
49%
32%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.140.591.73safe0.00–2.350.00–1.750.00–4.10safer0.00–2.690.00–2.090.00–4.78
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.783.43safe0.59–2.700.66–2.901.25–5.60safer0.32–2.970.37–3.190.69–6.16
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.053.62safe0.16–2.990.49–3.600.65–6.59safer0.00–3.380.06–4.030.00–7.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 3.00 | 1.11 0.25–1.97 0.00–2.21 | 4.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 7.00 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.62 2.41–7.12 | — | 3.53 1.83–5.24 1.36–5.71 | — | 8.30 4.74–11.86 3.77–12.83 | — | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 10.68 6.98–14.38 5.94–15.41 | — | 7.86 4.48–11.24 3.55–12.17 | — | 18.54 11.46–25.62 9.49–27.58 | — | 70% 22% |
| Shots in box | 1.29 0.00–3.81 0.00–4.68 | — | 0.89 0.00–3.19 0.00–3.99 | — | 2.19 0.00–7.00 0.00–8.66 | — | 46% 28% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 0.52 0.00–2.10 0.00–2.63 | — | 0.21 0.00–1.63 0.00–2.11 | — | 0.73 0.00–3.72 0.00–4.75 | — | 34% 54% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.98–7.39 2.38–7.98 | — | 3.39 1.42–5.37 0.88–5.91 | — | 8.57 4.39–12.76 3.26–13.89 | — | 67% 21% |
| Possession % | 51.08 44.76–57.40 43.17–58.99 | — | 48.24 41.92–54.55 40.32–56.15 | — | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 416 351–482 333–499 | — | 399 335–464 317–482 | — | 816 686–945 650–981 | — | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.33 63.12–71.55 61.82–72.85 | — | 67.83 63.32–72.34 61.99–73.67 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 13.10 10.24–15.95 9.35–16.84 | — | 12.91 9.96–15.85 9.05–16.77 | — | 26.01 20.20–31.81 18.40–33.61 | — | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.14 0.00–2.35 0.00–2.69 | — | 0.59 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.09 | — | 1.73 0.00–4.10 0.00–4.78 | — | 49% 32% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.43 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.57 0.16–2.99 0.00–3.38 | — | 2.05 0.49–3.60 0.06–4.03 | — | 3.62 0.65–6.59 0.00–7.41 | — | 30% 21% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+