FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.202.52safe0.36–2.280.34–2.060.70–4.35safer0.10–2.540.10–2.310.19–4.85actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.584.388.96safe2.72–6.432.67–6.095.40–12.52safer2.22–6.932.20–6.564.43–13.49
Total shots
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.158.0916.24safe4.45–11.864.71–11.479.16–23.33safer3.42–12.893.78–12.407.20–25.29
Shots in box
31%
45%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction0.580.461.04safe0.00–3.100.00–2.760.00–5.86safer0.00–3.960.00–3.550.00–7.52
Blocked shots
24%
58%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.360.290.65safe0.00–1.950.00–1.710.00–3.65safer0.00–2.480.00–2.190.00–4.67
Corners
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.233.939.17safe3.03–7.441.96–5.914.98–13.35safer2.43–8.031.42–6.453.85–14.48
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.7049.68safe44.38–57.0243.36–56.00safer42.79–58.6141.76–57.59
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction391406797safe325–456341–471667–927safer308–474324–488632–962
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction68.7370.26safe64.51–72.9465.75–74.77safer63.21–74.2564.42–76.10
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1314.5927.71safe10.27–15.9811.64–17.5321.91–33.52safer9.39–16.8710.72–18.4520.11–35.32
Offsides
35%
29%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.142.26safe0.00–2.330.00–2.310.00–4.63safer0.00–2.670.00–2.640.00–5.31
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.003.56safe0.51–2.620.88–3.121.39–5.74safer0.24–2.890.59–3.410.83–6.30
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.060.19safe0.00–0.290.00–0.250.00–0.54safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.323.87safe0.13–2.960.77–3.880.90–6.84safer0.00–3.350.34–4.310.08–7.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.28 0.10–2.54 | 2.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.10–2.31 | 0.00 | 2.52 0.70–4.35 0.19–4.85 | 2.00 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.72–6.43 2.22–6.93 | — | 4.38 2.67–6.09 2.20–6.56 | — | 8.96 5.40–12.52 4.43–13.49 | — | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 8.15 4.45–11.86 3.42–12.89 | — | 8.09 4.71–11.47 3.78–12.40 | — | 16.24 9.16–23.33 7.20–25.29 | — | 46% 44% |
| Shots in box | 0.58 0.00–3.10 0.00–3.96 | — | 0.46 0.00–2.76 0.00–3.55 | — | 1.04 0.00–5.86 0.00–7.52 | — | 31% 45% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 0.36 0.00–1.95 0.00–2.48 | — | 0.29 0.00–1.71 0.00–2.19 | — | 0.65 0.00–3.65 0.00–4.67 | — | 24% 58% 19% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.03–7.44 2.43–8.03 | — | 3.93 1.96–5.91 1.42–6.45 | — | 9.17 4.98–13.35 3.85–14.48 | — | 60% 27% |
| Possession % | 50.70 44.38–57.02 42.79–58.61 | — | 49.68 43.36–56.00 41.76–57.59 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 391 325–456 308–474 | — | 406 341–471 324–488 | — | 797 667–927 632–962 | — | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.73 64.51–72.94 63.21–74.25 | — | 70.26 65.75–74.77 64.42–76.10 | — | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 13.13 10.27–15.98 9.39–16.87 | — | 14.59 11.64–17.53 10.72–18.45 | — | 27.71 21.91–33.52 20.11–35.32 | — | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.12 0.00–2.33 0.00–2.67 | — | 1.14 0.00–2.31 0.00–2.64 | — | 2.26 0.00–4.63 0.00–5.31 | — | 35% 29% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.62 0.24–2.89 | — | 2.00 0.88–3.12 0.59–3.41 | — | 3.56 1.39–5.74 0.83–6.30 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 1.55 0.13–2.96 0.00–3.35 | — | 2.32 0.77–3.88 0.34–4.31 | — | 3.87 0.90–6.84 0.08–7.66 | — | 25% 20% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.