FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.212.90safe0.73–2.650.35–2.071.07–4.72safer0.47–2.910.10–2.310.57–5.23actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.849.48safe2.78–6.493.14–6.555.92–13.05safer2.28–6.992.67–7.024.95–14.01
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8512.8125.65safe9.15–16.559.43–16.1818.57–32.74safer8.11–17.588.50–17.1116.61–34.70
Shots in box
21%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction4.867.1612.02safe2.34–7.384.85–9.467.20–16.83safer1.48–8.244.06–10.255.54–18.49
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.153.146.29safe1.57–4.731.73–4.563.29–9.29safer1.03–5.271.24–5.042.27–10.31
Corners
47%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.837.98safe1.94–6.351.86–5.813.80–12.17safer1.35–6.951.32–6.352.67–13.30
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.5849.93safe42.26–54.9043.61–56.25safer40.67–56.5042.02–57.85
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction395389784safe329–460324–454654–914safer312–478307–471619–949
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction64.0667.61safe59.85–68.2863.11–72.12safer58.55–69.5861.78–73.45
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3712.0524.42safe9.51–15.239.11–15.0018.62–30.23safer8.63–16.118.19–15.9216.82–32.03
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.783.61safe0.63–3.040.61–2.941.24–5.98safer0.28–3.390.28–3.270.56–6.66
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.783.47safe0.64–2.750.66–2.901.30–5.65safer0.36–3.020.37–3.190.74–6.21
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.195.89safe1.28–4.111.64–4.752.92–8.86safer0.89–4.501.21–5.182.10–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.73–2.65 0.47–2.91 | 1.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.31 | 0.00 | 2.90 1.07–4.72 0.57–5.23 | 1.00 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | — | 4.84 3.14–6.55 2.67–7.02 | — | 9.48 5.92–13.05 4.95–14.01 | — | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.85 9.15–16.55 8.11–17.58 | — | 12.81 9.43–16.18 8.50–17.11 | — | 25.65 18.57–32.74 16.61–34.70 | — | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 4.86 2.34–7.38 1.48–8.24 | — | 7.16 4.85–9.46 4.06–10.25 | — | 12.02 7.20–16.83 5.54–18.49 | — | 21% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.57–4.73 1.03–5.27 | — | 3.14 1.73–4.56 1.24–5.04 | — | 6.29 3.29–9.29 2.27–10.31 | — | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.15 1.94–6.35 1.35–6.95 | — | 3.83 1.86–5.81 1.32–6.35 | — | 7.98 3.80–12.17 2.67–13.30 | — | 47% 14% 38% |
| Possession % | 48.58 42.26–54.90 40.67–56.50 | — | 49.93 43.61–56.25 42.02–57.85 | — | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 395 329–460 312–478 | — | 389 324–454 307–471 | — | 784 654–914 619–949 | — | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.06 59.85–68.28 58.55–69.58 | — | 67.61 63.11–72.12 61.78–73.45 | — | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.51–15.23 8.63–16.11 | — | 12.05 9.11–15.00 8.19–15.92 | — | 24.42 18.62–30.23 16.82–32.03 | — | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.63–3.04 0.28–3.39 | — | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | — | 3.61 1.24–5.98 0.56–6.66 | — | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | — | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.28–4.11 0.89–4.50 | — | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.18 | — | 5.89 2.92–8.86 2.10–9.68 | — | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.