FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.192.77safe0.62–2.550.33–2.050.95–4.60safer0.36–2.810.08–2.290.45–5.10actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.998.95safe3.10–6.812.29–5.705.39–12.51safer2.60–7.311.82–6.174.42–13.48
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction11.789.1620.93safe8.07–15.485.78–12.5313.85–28.01safer7.04–16.514.85–13.4711.89–29.98
Shots in box
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.343.39safe0.00–4.570.00–3.640.00–8.21safer0.00–5.440.00–4.430.00–9.87
Blocked shots
30%
53%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction0.470.310.78safe0.00–2.060.00–1.720.00–3.78safer0.00–2.590.00–2.210.00–4.80
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.444.369.80safe3.24–7.652.38–6.345.62–13.98safer2.64–8.241.84–6.874.48–15.12
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.5846.63safe46.27–58.9040.31–52.95safer44.67–60.5038.72–54.55
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction421367789safe356–487303–432659–919safer338–504285–449624–954
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction70.1167.24safe65.90–74.3362.74–71.75safer64.60–75.6361.41–73.08
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.4421.77safe7.47–13.188.50–14.3915.96–27.57safer6.58–14.067.58–15.3114.16–29.37
Offsides
45%
30%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.210.852.06safe0.00–2.420.00–2.010.00–4.43safer0.00–2.760.00–2.340.00–5.10
Yellow cards
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.843.41safe0.51–2.630.72–2.961.23–5.59safer0.24–2.900.43–3.250.67–6.15
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.353.91safe0.15–2.970.79–3.900.94–6.87safer0.00–3.360.36–4.330.12–7.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.62–2.55 0.36–2.81 | 1.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.29 | 2.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.45–5.10 | 3.00 | 47% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.10–6.81 2.60–7.31 | — | 3.99 2.29–5.70 1.82–6.17 | — | 8.95 5.39–12.51 4.42–13.48 | — | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 11.78 8.07–15.48 7.04–16.51 | — | 9.16 5.78–12.53 4.85–13.47 | — | 20.93 13.85–28.01 11.89–29.98 | — | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 2.06 0.00–4.57 0.00–5.44 | — | 1.34 0.00–3.64 0.00–4.43 | — | 3.39 0.00–8.21 0.00–9.87 | — | 54% 21% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 0.47 0.00–2.06 0.00–2.59 | — | 0.31 0.00–1.72 0.00–2.21 | — | 0.78 0.00–3.78 0.00–4.80 | — | 30% 53% 18% |
| Corners | 5.44 3.24–7.65 2.64–8.24 | — | 4.36 2.38–6.34 1.84–6.87 | — | 9.80 5.62–13.98 4.48–15.12 | — | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 52.58 46.27–58.90 44.67–60.50 | — | 46.63 40.31–52.95 38.72–54.55 | — | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 421 356–487 338–504 | — | 367 303–432 285–449 | — | 789 659–919 624–954 | — | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.11 65.90–74.33 64.60–75.63 | — | 67.24 62.74–71.75 61.41–73.08 | — | — | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.47–13.18 6.58–14.06 | — | 11.44 8.50–14.39 7.58–15.31 | — | 21.77 15.96–27.57 14.16–29.37 | — | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.21 0.00–2.42 0.00–2.76 | — | 0.85 0.00–2.01 0.00–2.34 | — | 2.06 0.00–4.43 0.00–5.10 | — | 45% 30% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.63 0.24–2.90 | — | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | — | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.67–6.15 | — | 33% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.56 0.15–2.97 0.00–3.36 | — | 2.35 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | — | 3.91 0.94–6.87 0.12–7.70 | — | 25% 20% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.