FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.192.67safe0.52–2.440.33–2.050.85–4.49safer0.26–2.700.08–2.300.34–5.00actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.844.128.96safe2.98–6.692.41–5.835.40–12.52safer2.48–7.191.95–6.304.43–13.49
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.859.5621.41safe8.15–15.556.18–12.9414.33–28.49safer7.11–16.585.25–13.8712.37–30.45
Shots in box
56%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.243.30safe0.00–4.580.00–3.540.00–8.12safer0.00–5.450.00–4.340.00–9.78
Blocked shots
24%
56%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.380.330.70safe0.00–1.960.00–1.740.00–3.70safer0.00–2.490.00–2.230.00–4.72
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.359.69safe3.13–7.542.38–6.335.50–13.87safer2.53–8.131.84–6.874.37–15.00
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction52.8745.94safe46.55–59.1839.62–52.25safer44.95–60.7838.02–53.85
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction430372802safe365–496308–437672–932safer347–513290–454637–967
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction73.1868.77safe68.96–77.3964.27–73.28safer67.66–78.6962.94–74.61
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5411.4422.97safe8.68–14.398.49–14.3817.17–28.78safer7.79–15.287.57–15.3015.37–30.58
Offsides
40%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.713.49safe0.57–2.990.55–2.881.12–5.87safer0.23–3.330.22–3.210.44–6.54
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.923.48safe0.51–2.620.80–3.041.30–5.66safer0.24–2.890.51–3.330.74–6.22
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.462.825.28safe1.05–3.881.26–4.372.31–8.25safer0.66–4.270.83–4.801.49–9.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.52–2.44 0.26–2.70 | 1.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.30 | 2.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.34–5.00 | 3.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.69 2.48–7.19 | — | 4.12 2.41–5.83 1.95–6.30 | — | 8.96 5.40–12.52 4.43–13.49 | — | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 11.85 8.15–15.55 7.11–16.58 | — | 9.56 6.18–12.94 5.25–13.87 | — | 21.41 14.33–28.49 12.37–30.45 | — | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 2.06 0.00–4.58 0.00–5.45 | — | 1.24 0.00–3.54 0.00–4.34 | — | 3.30 0.00–8.12 0.00–9.78 | — | 56% 21% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 0.38 0.00–1.96 0.00–2.49 | — | 0.33 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.23 | — | 0.70 0.00–3.70 0.00–4.72 | — | 24% 56% 20% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.13–7.54 2.53–8.13 | — | 4.35 2.38–6.33 1.84–6.87 | — | 9.69 5.50–13.87 4.37–15.00 | — | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.87 46.55–59.18 44.95–60.78 | — | 45.94 39.62–52.25 38.02–53.85 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 430 365–496 347–513 | — | 372 308–437 290–454 | — | 802 672–932 637–967 | — | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.18 68.96–77.39 67.66–78.69 | — | 68.77 64.27–73.28 62.94–74.61 | — | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.68–14.39 7.79–15.28 | — | 11.44 8.49–14.38 7.57–15.30 | — | 22.97 17.17–28.78 15.37–30.58 | — | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.33 | — | 1.71 0.55–2.88 0.22–3.21 | — | 3.49 1.12–5.87 0.44–6.54 | — | 40% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.62 0.24–2.89 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.74–6.22 | — | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.05–3.88 0.66–4.27 | — | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | — | 5.28 2.31–8.25 1.49–9.07 | — | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.