FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.142.60safe0.50–2.430.28–1.990.78–4.42safer0.24–2.690.03–2.240.27–4.93actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.068.06safe3.14–6.851.35–4.774.49–11.62safer2.64–7.350.88–5.233.52–12.59
Total shots
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction12.648.9921.63safe8.94–16.355.61–12.3714.55–28.71safer7.91–17.384.68–13.3012.59–30.67
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.711.966.67safe2.19–7.230.00–4.271.86–11.49safer1.33–8.090.00–5.060.20–13.15
Blocked shots
59%
24%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.720.832.55safe0.14–3.310.00–2.240.00–5.55safer0.00–3.840.00–2.730.00–6.57
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.099.70safe3.40–7.812.11–6.075.52–13.89safer2.81–8.411.58–6.614.39–15.02
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction52.6946.28safe46.37–59.0139.96–52.60safer44.78–60.6038.36–54.19
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction404351755safe339–469286–415625–885safer321–487269–433590–920
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction68.5265.58safe64.31–72.7461.07–70.08safer63.01–74.0459.74–71.42
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0413.8925.92safe9.18–14.8910.94–16.8320.12–31.73safer8.30–15.7810.02–17.7518.32–33.53
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.383.11safe0.52–2.930.22–2.550.74–5.48safer0.17–3.280.00–2.880.06–6.16
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.873.52safe0.60–2.710.75–2.991.35–5.70safer0.33–2.990.46–3.280.79–6.26
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
26%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.784.70safe0.50–3.331.23–4.341.73–7.67safer0.11–3.720.80–4.770.91–8.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.69 | 0.00 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 1.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 1.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.85 2.64–7.35 | — | 3.06 1.35–4.77 0.88–5.23 | — | 8.06 4.49–11.62 3.52–12.59 | — | 69% 19% |
| Total shots | 12.64 8.94–16.35 7.91–17.38 | — | 8.99 5.61–12.37 4.68–13.30 | — | 21.63 14.55–28.71 12.59–30.67 | — | 75% 18% |
| Shots in box | 4.71 2.19–7.23 1.33–8.09 | — | 1.96 0.00–4.27 0.00–5.06 | — | 6.67 1.86–11.49 0.20–13.15 | — | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 1.72 0.14–3.31 0.00–3.84 | — | 0.83 0.00–2.24 0.00–2.73 | — | 2.55 0.00–5.55 0.00–6.57 | — | 59% 24% 18% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.81 2.81–8.41 | — | 4.09 2.11–6.07 1.58–6.61 | — | 9.70 5.52–13.89 4.39–15.02 | — | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.69 46.37–59.01 44.78–60.60 | — | 46.28 39.96–52.60 38.36–54.19 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 404 339–469 321–487 | — | 351 286–415 269–433 | — | 755 625–885 590–920 | — | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.52 64.31–72.74 63.01–74.04 | — | 65.58 61.07–70.08 59.74–71.42 | — | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 12.04 9.18–14.89 8.30–15.78 | — | 13.89 10.94–16.83 10.02–17.75 | — | 25.92 20.12–31.73 18.32–33.53 | — | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.52–2.93 0.17–3.28 | — | 1.38 0.22–2.55 0.00–2.88 | — | 3.11 0.74–5.48 0.06–6.16 | — | 46% 23% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.99 | — | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | — | 3.52 1.35–5.70 0.79–6.26 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.50–3.33 0.11–3.72 | — | 2.78 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.77 | — | 4.70 1.73–7.67 0.91–8.49 | — | 26% 18% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.