FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.162.85safe0.73–2.660.30–2.021.03–4.68safer0.47–2.920.05–2.270.52–5.18actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.178.02safe2.99–6.701.47–4.884.46–11.58safer2.49–7.201.00–5.353.49–12.55
Total shots
82%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1810.1725.35safe11.48–18.886.79–13.5518.27–32.43safer10.45–19.915.86–14.4816.30–34.39
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.105.8815.98safe7.59–12.623.58–8.1811.17–20.80safer6.72–13.482.78–8.989.51–22.46
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.876.64safe2.19–5.351.45–4.283.64–9.64safer1.65–5.890.96–4.772.62–10.66
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.359.31safe2.76–7.172.37–6.335.13–13.49safer2.16–7.761.83–6.863.99–14.63
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction55.5543.87safe49.23–61.8737.55–50.19safer47.64–63.4635.96–51.79
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction438304742safe373–503239–368612–871safer355–521221–386576–907
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction73.9063.60safe69.68–78.1159.09–68.10safer68.38–79.4157.76–69.43
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9711.5422.51safe8.11–13.828.60–14.4916.70–28.31safer7.22–14.717.68–15.4014.90–30.11
Offsides
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.803.28safe0.27–2.690.64–2.970.91–5.65safer0.00–3.030.31–3.300.23–6.33
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.933.48safe0.49–2.600.81–3.051.30–5.65safer0.21–2.870.52–3.340.74–6.21
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.685.40safe1.31–4.141.12–4.232.43–8.37safer0.92–4.530.69–4.661.61–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.73–2.66 0.47–2.92 | 0.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.02 0.05–2.27 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.68 0.52–5.18 | 1.00 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.99–6.70 2.49–7.20 | — | 3.17 1.47–4.88 1.00–5.35 | — | 8.02 4.46–11.58 3.49–12.55 | — | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 15.18 11.48–18.88 10.45–19.91 | — | 10.17 6.79–13.55 5.86–14.48 | — | 25.35 18.27–32.43 16.30–34.39 | — | 82% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.10 7.59–12.62 6.72–13.48 | — | 5.88 3.58–8.18 2.78–8.98 | — | 15.98 11.17–20.80 9.51–22.46 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 2.19–5.35 1.65–5.89 | — | 2.87 1.45–4.28 0.96–4.77 | — | 6.64 3.64–9.64 2.62–10.66 | — | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.76–7.17 2.16–7.76 | — | 4.35 2.37–6.33 1.83–6.86 | — | 9.31 5.13–13.49 3.99–14.63 | — | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 55.55 49.23–61.87 47.64–63.46 | — | 43.87 37.55–50.19 35.96–51.79 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 438 373–503 355–521 | — | 304 239–368 221–386 | — | 742 612–871 576–907 | — | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.90 69.68–78.11 68.38–79.41 | — | 63.60 59.09–68.10 57.76–69.43 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.11–13.82 7.22–14.71 | — | 11.54 8.60–14.49 7.68–15.40 | — | 22.51 16.70–28.31 14.90–30.11 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.27–2.69 0.00–3.03 | — | 1.80 0.64–2.97 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.28 0.91–5.65 0.23–6.33 | — | 32% 23% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.60 0.21–2.87 | — | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | — | 3.48 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.31–4.14 0.92–4.53 | — | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.69–4.66 | — | 5.40 2.43–8.37 1.61–9.19 | — | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+