FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.272.79safe0.56–2.480.41–2.130.96–4.61safer0.30–2.740.16–2.370.46–5.12actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.833.718.54safe2.97–6.692.01–5.424.98–12.11safer2.48–7.191.54–5.894.01–13.08
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction12.649.9122.55safe8.93–16.346.53–13.2915.46–29.63safer7.90–17.375.60–14.2213.50–31.59
Shots in box
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.956.39safe0.00–4.961.64–6.251.57–11.20safer0.00–5.820.85–7.040.00–12.87
Blocked shots
47%
28%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.330.882.21safe0.00–2.920.00–2.300.00–5.21safer0.00–3.450.00–2.780.00–6.23
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.799.93safe2.94–7.352.81–6.775.75–14.12safer2.34–7.942.28–7.314.62–15.25
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.6350.72safe42.31–54.9544.40–57.04safer40.72–56.5442.80–58.63
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction368403770safe302–433338–467640–900safer285–451320–485605–935
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction65.7669.75safe61.55–69.9865.24–74.26safer60.24–71.2863.91–75.59
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7012.9524.65safe8.84–14.5610.00–15.8918.84–30.45safer7.96–15.449.08–16.8117.04–32.25
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.913.88safe0.77–3.190.74–3.071.51–6.26safer0.42–3.530.41–3.400.83–6.93
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.913.40safe0.43–2.540.79–3.031.22–5.57safer0.16–2.810.50–3.320.66–6.14
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.050.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
40%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.915.76safe1.43–4.261.35–4.462.79–8.72safer1.04–4.650.92–4.891.97–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.48 0.30–2.74 | 1.00 | 1.27 0.41–2.13 0.16–2.37 | 2.00 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.46–5.12 | 3.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.97–6.69 2.48–7.19 | — | 3.71 2.01–5.42 1.54–5.89 | — | 8.54 4.98–12.11 4.01–13.08 | — | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 12.64 8.93–16.34 7.90–17.37 | — | 9.91 6.53–13.29 5.60–14.22 | — | 22.55 15.46–29.63 13.50–31.59 | — | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 2.44 0.00–4.96 0.00–5.82 | — | 3.95 1.64–6.25 0.85–7.04 | — | 6.39 1.57–11.20 0.00–12.87 | — | 21% 14% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 1.33 0.00–2.92 0.00–3.45 | — | 0.88 0.00–2.30 0.00–2.78 | — | 2.21 0.00–5.21 0.00–6.23 | — | 47% 28% 25% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.94–7.35 2.34–7.94 | — | 4.79 2.81–6.77 2.28–7.31 | — | 9.93 5.75–14.12 4.62–15.25 | — | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 48.63 42.31–54.95 40.72–56.54 | — | 50.72 44.40–57.04 42.80–58.63 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 368 302–433 285–451 | — | 403 338–467 320–485 | — | 770 640–900 605–935 | — | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.76 61.55–69.98 60.24–71.28 | — | 69.75 65.24–74.26 63.91–75.59 | — | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 11.70 8.84–14.56 7.96–15.44 | — | 12.95 10.00–15.89 9.08–16.81 | — | 24.65 18.84–30.45 17.04–32.25 | — | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.77–3.19 0.42–3.53 | — | 1.91 0.74–3.07 0.41–3.40 | — | 3.88 1.51–6.26 0.83–6.93 | — | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.81 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | — | 3.40 1.22–5.57 0.66–6.14 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.43–4.26 1.04–4.65 | — | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | — | 5.76 2.79–8.72 1.97–9.54 | — | 40% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+