FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
45%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.182.70safe0.56–2.490.32–2.040.88–4.52safer0.30–2.750.07–2.280.37–5.03actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.025.1410.16safe3.16–6.883.43–6.846.59–13.72safer2.67–7.382.96–7.315.63–14.69
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4113.1625.57safe8.70–16.119.78–16.5418.49–32.65safer7.67–17.148.85–17.4716.52–34.61
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.096.9917.08safe7.57–12.604.69–9.2912.26–21.90safer6.71–13.473.89–10.0910.60–23.56
Blocked shots
50%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.086.66safe2.00–5.161.67–4.503.66–9.66safer1.46–5.701.18–4.982.64–10.68
Corners
46%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.439.11safe2.47–6.882.46–6.414.93–13.30safer1.88–7.481.92–6.953.80–14.43
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.9249.16safe44.60–57.2342.84–55.48safer43.00–58.8341.24–57.08
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction415376791safe350–480312–441661–921safer332–498294–458626–956
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction74.9969.32safe70.77–79.2064.81–73.82safer69.47–80.5063.48–75.15
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6212.1923.81safe8.77–14.489.25–15.1418.01–29.62safer7.88–15.368.33–16.0616.21–31.42
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.813.47safe0.45–2.870.65–2.971.10–5.84safer0.11–3.220.31–3.300.42–6.52
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.923.44safe0.46–2.570.80–3.041.26–5.61safer0.19–2.850.51–3.330.70–6.18
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
42%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.725.46safe1.33–4.151.17–4.282.49–8.43safer0.94–4.540.74–4.711.67–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.75 | 1.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 3.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.37–5.03 | 4.00 | 45% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.88 2.67–7.38 | — | 5.14 3.43–6.84 2.96–7.31 | — | 10.16 6.59–13.72 5.63–14.69 | — | 42% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.41 8.70–16.11 7.67–17.14 | — | 13.16 9.78–16.54 8.85–17.47 | — | 25.57 18.49–32.65 16.52–34.61 | — | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 10.09 7.57–12.60 6.71–13.47 | — | 6.99 4.69–9.29 3.89–10.09 | — | 17.08 12.26–21.90 10.60–23.56 | — | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 2.00–5.16 1.46–5.70 | — | 3.08 1.67–4.50 1.18–4.98 | — | 6.66 3.66–9.66 2.64–10.68 | — | 50% 16% 35% |
| Corners | 4.68 2.47–6.88 1.88–7.48 | — | 4.43 2.46–6.41 1.92–6.95 | — | 9.11 4.93–13.30 3.80–14.43 | — | 46% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.92 44.60–57.23 43.00–58.83 | — | 49.16 42.84–55.48 41.24–57.08 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 415 350–480 332–498 | — | 376 312–441 294–458 | — | 791 661–921 626–956 | — | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.99 70.77–79.20 69.47–80.50 | — | 69.32 64.81–73.82 63.48–75.15 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 11.62 8.77–14.48 7.88–15.36 | — | 12.19 9.25–15.14 8.33–16.06 | — | 23.81 18.01–29.62 16.21–31.42 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.45–2.87 0.11–3.22 | — | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.57 0.19–2.85 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.44 1.26–5.61 0.70–6.18 | — | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.33–4.15 0.94–4.54 | — | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | — | 5.46 2.49–8.43 1.67–9.25 | — | 42% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.