Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.122.64safe0.56–2.480.26–1.980.82–4.47safer0.30–2.740.02–2.230.31–4.97actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.982.887.86safe3.12–6.841.17–4.594.30–11.43safer2.63–7.340.71–5.063.33–12.39
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction12.209.1121.31safe8.49–15.905.73–12.4914.23–28.39safer7.46–16.934.80–13.4212.27–30.35
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.486.6815.15safe5.96–10.994.38–8.9810.34–19.97safer5.10–11.863.58–9.788.68–21.63
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.652.776.42safe2.06–5.231.35–4.183.42–9.41safer1.53–5.770.87–4.672.40–10.44
Corners
49%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.789.96safe2.97–7.392.80–6.765.78–14.14safer2.38–7.982.26–7.304.64–15.28
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.5251.27safe43.21–55.8444.95–57.59safer41.61–57.4443.35–59.18
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction385439824safe319–450374–504694–954safer302–468357–521659–989
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction71.4072.71safe67.18–75.6168.21–77.22safer65.88–76.9166.88–78.55
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6012.1623.76safe8.74–14.469.22–15.1117.96–29.56safer7.86–15.348.30–16.0316.16–31.37
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.773.58safe0.59–3.010.61–2.941.20–5.95safer0.25–3.360.28–3.270.53–6.62
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.763.38safe0.57–2.680.64–2.881.21–5.56safer0.30–2.960.35–3.170.65–6.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.765.18safe1.00–3.831.21–4.312.21–8.15safer0.61–4.220.77–4.751.39–8.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.48 0.30–2.74 | 3.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 2.00 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.31–4.97 | 5.00 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.12–6.84 2.63–7.34 | — | 2.88 1.17–4.59 0.71–5.06 | — | 7.86 4.30–11.43 3.33–12.39 | — | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 12.20 8.49–15.90 7.46–16.93 | — | 9.11 5.73–12.49 4.80–13.42 | — | 21.31 14.23–28.39 12.27–30.35 | — | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.96–10.99 5.10–11.86 | — | 6.68 4.38–8.98 3.58–9.78 | — | 15.15 10.34–19.97 8.68–21.63 | — | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 2.06–5.23 1.53–5.77 | — | 2.77 1.35–4.18 0.87–4.67 | — | 6.42 3.42–9.41 2.40–10.44 | — | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.39 2.38–7.98 | — | 4.78 2.80–6.76 2.26–7.30 | — | 9.96 5.78–14.14 4.64–15.28 | — | 49% 39% |
| Possession % | 49.52 43.21–55.84 41.61–57.44 | — | 51.27 44.95–57.59 43.35–59.18 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 385 319–450 302–468 | — | 439 374–504 357–521 | — | 824 694–954 659–989 | — | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.40 67.18–75.61 65.88–76.91 | — | 72.71 68.21–77.22 66.88–78.55 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.60 8.74–14.46 7.86–15.34 | — | 12.16 9.22–15.11 8.30–16.03 | — | 23.76 17.96–29.56 16.16–31.37 | — | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.59–3.01 0.25–3.36 | — | 1.77 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | — | 3.58 1.20–5.95 0.53–6.62 | — | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.96 | — | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | — | 3.38 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | — | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.00–3.83 0.61–4.22 | — | 2.76 1.21–4.31 0.77–4.75 | — | 5.18 2.21–8.15 1.39–8.97 | — | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+