Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.232.75safe0.55–2.480.37–2.090.92–4.57safer0.29–2.740.12–2.340.42–5.08actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.5010.12safe3.76–7.472.80–6.216.55–13.68safer3.26–7.972.33–6.685.59–14.65
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5111.5826.09safe10.80–18.218.20–14.9619.01–33.17safer9.77–19.247.27–15.8917.05–35.13
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.607.3315.93safe6.09–11.125.03–9.6311.12–20.75safer5.22–11.984.23–10.439.46–22.41
Blocked shots
47%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.296.91safe2.04–5.211.87–4.703.91–9.91safer1.50–5.741.39–5.192.89–10.93
Corners
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.164.028.18safe1.96–6.372.05–6.004.00–12.37safer1.36–6.961.51–6.542.87–13.50
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.2550.66safe42.93–55.5744.34–56.98safer41.34–57.1642.74–58.57
Passes
49%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction403404807safe338–468340–469677–937safer320–486322–486642–972
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction68.2668.55safe64.04–72.4764.04–73.06safer62.74–73.7762.71–74.39
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8812.4924.37safe9.02–14.749.55–15.4418.57–30.17safer8.14–15.628.63–16.3516.77–31.98
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.733.32safe0.38–2.800.56–2.890.94–5.69safer0.03–3.140.23–3.220.27–6.36
Yellow cards
29%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.863.23safe0.32–2.430.74–2.981.06–5.41safer0.05–2.710.45–3.270.50–5.97
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.272.895.16safe0.85–3.681.34–4.442.19–8.13safer0.46–4.070.90–4.881.37–8.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.48 0.29–2.74 | 2.00 | 1.23 0.37–2.09 0.12–2.34 | 0.00 | 2.75 0.92–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 2.00 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.61 3.76–7.47 3.26–7.97 | — | 4.50 2.80–6.21 2.33–6.68 | — | 10.12 6.55–13.68 5.59–14.65 | — | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.51 10.80–18.21 9.77–19.24 | — | 11.58 8.20–14.96 7.27–15.89 | — | 26.09 19.01–33.17 17.05–35.13 | — | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 8.60 6.09–11.12 5.22–11.98 | — | 7.33 5.03–9.63 4.23–10.43 | — | 15.93 11.12–20.75 9.46–22.41 | — | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 2.04–5.21 1.50–5.74 | — | 3.29 1.87–4.70 1.39–5.19 | — | 6.91 3.91–9.91 2.89–10.93 | — | 47% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 4.16 1.96–6.37 1.36–6.96 | — | 4.02 2.05–6.00 1.51–6.54 | — | 8.18 4.00–12.37 2.87–13.50 | — | 45% 14% 41% |
| Possession % | 49.25 42.93–55.57 41.34–57.16 | — | 50.66 44.34–56.98 42.74–58.57 | — | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 403 338–468 320–486 | — | 404 340–469 322–486 | — | 807 677–937 642–972 | — | 49% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.26 64.04–72.47 62.74–73.77 | — | 68.55 64.04–73.06 62.71–74.39 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.88 9.02–14.74 8.14–15.62 | — | 12.49 9.55–15.44 8.63–16.35 | — | 24.37 18.57–30.17 16.77–31.98 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.38–2.80 0.03–3.14 | — | 1.73 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | — | 3.32 0.94–5.69 0.27–6.36 | — | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 0.32–2.43 0.05–2.71 | — | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | — | 3.23 1.06–5.41 0.50–5.97 | — | 29% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.85–3.68 0.46–4.07 | — | 2.89 1.34–4.44 0.90–4.88 | — | 5.16 2.19–8.13 1.37–8.95 | — | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+