FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
15%
18%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.022.353.37safe0.06–1.981.49–3.211.54–5.19safer0.00–2.241.24–3.451.04–5.70actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.795.819.61safe1.93–5.654.11–7.526.04–13.17safer1.44–6.153.64–7.995.07–14.14
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0413.9124.95safe7.34–14.7410.53–17.2917.87–32.03safer6.31–15.789.60–18.2215.91–34.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction4.6510.9415.59safe2.14–7.178.64–13.2410.77–20.41safer1.27–8.037.84–14.049.11–22.07
Blocked shots
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction1.903.995.90safe0.32–3.492.58–5.412.90–8.90safer0.00–4.022.09–5.901.88–9.92
Corners
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.135.9610.10safe1.93–6.343.99–7.945.91–14.28safer1.33–6.933.45–8.484.78–15.41
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction38.0961.20safe31.77–44.4154.88–67.52safer30.18–46.0053.28–69.11
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction310466777safe245–375402–531647–906safer227–393384–549611–942
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction63.7973.97safe59.57–68.0069.46–78.47safer58.27–69.3168.13–79.80
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6312.0825.71safe10.77–16.499.14–15.0319.91–31.51safer9.89–17.378.22–15.9418.11–33.32
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.683.80safe0.92–3.340.51–2.841.43–6.18safer0.57–3.680.18–3.170.76–6.85
Yellow cards
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.563.23safe0.61–2.720.44–2.681.05–5.40safer0.34–2.990.15–2.970.49–5.97
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.446.34safe2.49–5.320.89–3.993.38–9.31safer2.10–5.710.45–4.432.55–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 0.06–1.98 0.00–2.24 | 1.00 | 2.35 1.49–3.21 1.24–3.45 | 2.00 | 3.37 1.54–5.19 1.04–5.70 | 3.00 | 15% 18% 67% |
| Shots on target | 3.79 1.93–5.65 1.44–6.15 | — | 5.81 4.11–7.52 3.64–7.99 | — | 9.61 6.04–13.17 5.07–14.14 | — | 21% 69% |
| Total shots | 11.04 7.34–14.74 6.31–15.78 | — | 13.91 10.53–17.29 9.60–18.22 | — | 24.95 17.87–32.03 15.91–34.00 | — | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 4.65 2.14–7.17 1.27–8.03 | — | 10.94 8.64–13.24 7.84–14.04 | — | 15.59 10.77–20.41 9.11–22.07 | — | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 1.90 0.32–3.49 0.00–4.02 | — | 3.99 2.58–5.41 2.09–5.90 | — | 5.90 2.90–8.90 1.88–9.92 | — | 14% 74% |
| Corners | 4.13 1.93–6.34 1.33–6.93 | — | 5.96 3.99–7.94 3.45–8.48 | — | 10.10 5.91–14.28 4.78–15.41 | — | 23% 66% |
| Possession % | 38.09 31.77–44.41 30.18–46.00 | — | 61.20 54.88–67.52 53.28–69.11 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 310 245–375 227–393 | — | 466 402–531 384–549 | — | 777 647–906 611–942 | — | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.79 59.57–68.00 58.27–69.31 | — | 73.97 69.46–78.47 68.13–79.80 | — | — | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 13.63 10.77–16.49 9.89–17.37 | — | 12.08 9.14–15.03 8.22–15.94 | — | 25.71 19.91–31.51 18.11–33.32 | — | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.92–3.34 0.57–3.68 | — | 1.68 0.51–2.84 0.18–3.17 | — | 3.80 1.43–6.18 0.76–6.85 | — | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.72 0.34–2.99 | — | 1.56 0.44–2.68 0.15–2.97 | — | 3.23 1.05–5.40 0.49–5.97 | — | 41% 23% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.90 2.49–5.32 2.10–5.71 | — | 2.44 0.89–3.99 0.45–4.43 | — | 6.34 3.38–9.31 2.55–10.13 | — | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+