FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.483.06safe0.61–2.540.62–2.341.24–4.88safer0.35–2.800.38–2.590.73–5.39actual2.004.006.00
Shots on target
43%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.085.1610.25safe3.23–6.943.46–6.876.68–13.81safer2.73–7.442.99–7.345.72–14.78
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4413.1626.60safe9.74–17.159.78–16.5419.52–33.68safer8.71–18.188.85–17.4717.56–35.64
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.699.8415.53safe3.17–8.207.54–12.1410.71–20.35safer2.31–9.076.74–12.949.05–22.01
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.786.98safe1.62–4.792.36–5.193.98–9.98safer1.08–5.321.88–5.682.96–11.00
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.939.47safe2.33–6.742.96–6.915.29–13.66safer1.74–7.342.42–7.454.16–14.79
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.1056.65safe36.79–49.4250.33–62.97safer35.19–51.0248.74–64.57
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction323444767safe257–388379–508637–896safer240–406362–526601–932
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction69.3076.11safe65.09–73.5271.60–80.61safer63.79–74.8270.27–81.94
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5912.7124.30safe8.73–14.459.76–15.6618.50–30.10safer7.85–15.338.85–16.5716.70–31.91
Offsides
35%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.803.41safe0.40–2.820.64–2.961.04–5.78safer0.05–3.160.31–3.300.36–6.46
Yellow cards
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.613.17safe0.50–2.620.49–2.730.99–5.35safer0.23–2.890.20–3.020.43–5.91
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.995.25safe0.85–3.671.44–4.552.29–8.22safer0.46–4.061.01–4.981.46–9.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 2.00 | 1.48 0.62–2.34 0.38–2.59 | 4.00 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.73–5.39 | 6.00 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.08 3.23–6.94 2.73–7.44 | — | 5.16 3.46–6.87 2.99–7.34 | — | 10.25 6.68–13.81 5.72–14.78 | — | 43% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.44 9.74–17.15 8.71–18.18 | — | 13.16 9.78–16.54 8.85–17.47 | — | 26.60 19.52–33.68 17.56–35.64 | — | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 5.69 3.17–8.20 2.31–9.07 | — | 9.84 7.54–12.14 6.74–12.94 | — | 15.53 10.71–20.35 9.05–22.01 | — | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.62–4.79 1.08–5.32 | — | 3.78 2.36–5.19 1.88–5.68 | — | 6.98 3.98–9.98 2.96–11.00 | — | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.33–6.74 1.74–7.34 | — | 4.93 2.96–6.91 2.42–7.45 | — | 9.47 5.29–13.66 4.16–14.79 | — | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 43.10 36.79–49.42 35.19–51.02 | — | 56.65 50.33–62.97 48.74–64.57 | — | — | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 323 257–388 240–406 | — | 444 379–508 362–526 | — | 767 637–896 601–932 | — | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.30 65.09–73.52 63.79–74.82 | — | 76.11 71.60–80.61 70.27–81.94 | — | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 11.59 8.73–14.45 7.85–15.33 | — | 12.71 9.76–15.66 8.85–16.57 | — | 24.30 18.50–30.10 16.70–31.91 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.40–2.82 0.05–3.16 | — | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | — | 35% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.50–2.62 0.23–2.89 | — | 1.61 0.49–2.73 0.20–3.02 | — | 3.17 0.99–5.35 0.43–5.91 | — | 37% 24% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.85–3.67 0.46–4.06 | — | 2.99 1.44–4.55 1.01–4.98 | — | 5.25 2.29–8.22 1.46–9.04 | — | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.