FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
46%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.242.86safe0.66–2.580.38–2.101.04–4.69safer0.40–2.840.14–2.350.54–5.19actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.068.97safe3.06–6.772.35–5.765.41–12.53safer2.56–7.271.88–6.234.44–13.50
Total shots
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.828.2319.04safe7.11–14.524.85–11.6111.96–26.13safer6.08–15.553.92–12.5410.00–28.09
Shots in box
23%
51%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction0.410.440.85safe0.00–2.920.00–2.750.00–5.67safer0.00–3.790.00–3.540.00–7.33
Blocked shots
39%
45%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.680.341.02safe0.00–2.260.00–1.760.00–4.02safer0.00–2.800.00–2.250.00–5.04
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.973.039.00safe3.77–8.181.05–5.004.81–13.18safer3.17–8.770.51–5.543.68–14.31
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.4150.96safe42.10–54.7344.64–57.28safer40.50–56.3343.04–58.87
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction348404752safe283–414339–468622–882safer266–431321–486587–917
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction61.7867.91safe57.57–66.0063.40–72.41safer56.26–67.3062.07–73.74
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0711.8324.91safe10.22–15.938.89–14.7819.10–30.71safer9.33–16.827.97–15.7017.30–32.51
Offsides
22%
48%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction0.410.540.94safe0.00–1.610.00–1.700.00–3.32safer0.00–1.960.00–2.030.00–3.99
Yellow cards
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.763.17safe0.36–2.470.64–2.880.99–5.35safer0.08–2.740.35–3.170.43–5.91
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.070.18safe0.00–0.270.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
29%
32%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction0.841.021.86safe0.00–2.250.00–2.580.00–4.83safer0.00–2.640.00–3.010.00–5.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.66–2.58 0.40–2.84 | 3.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.14–2.35 | 0.00 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.54–5.19 | 3.00 | 46% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.77 2.56–7.27 | — | 4.06 2.35–5.76 1.88–6.23 | — | 8.97 5.41–12.53 4.44–13.50 | — | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 10.82 7.11–14.52 6.08–15.55 | — | 8.23 4.85–11.61 3.92–12.54 | — | 19.04 11.96–26.13 10.00–28.09 | — | 68% 24% |
| Shots in box | 0.41 0.00–2.92 0.00–3.79 | — | 0.44 0.00–2.75 0.00–3.54 | — | 0.85 0.00–5.67 0.00–7.33 | — | 23% 51% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 0.68 0.00–2.26 0.00–2.80 | — | 0.34 0.00–1.76 0.00–2.25 | — | 1.02 0.00–4.02 0.00–5.04 | — | 39% 45% 16% |
| Corners | 5.97 3.77–8.18 3.17–8.77 | — | 3.03 1.05–5.00 0.51–5.54 | — | 9.00 4.81–13.18 3.68–14.31 | — | 79% |
| Possession % | 48.41 42.10–54.73 40.50–56.33 | — | 50.96 44.64–57.28 43.04–58.87 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 348 283–414 266–431 | — | 404 339–468 321–486 | — | 752 622–882 587–917 | — | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.78 57.57–66.00 56.26–67.30 | — | 67.91 63.40–72.41 62.07–73.74 | — | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 13.07 10.22–15.93 9.33–16.82 | — | 11.83 8.89–14.78 7.97–15.70 | — | 24.91 19.10–30.71 17.30–32.51 | — | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 0.41 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.96 | — | 0.54 0.00–1.70 0.00–2.03 | — | 0.94 0.00–3.32 0.00–3.99 | — | 22% 48% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 0.36–2.47 0.08–2.74 | — | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | — | 3.17 0.99–5.35 0.43–5.91 | — | 31% 23% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 0.84 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.64 | — | 1.02 0.00–2.58 0.00–3.01 | — | 1.86 0.00–4.83 0.00–5.65 | — | 29% 32% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.