FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.122.89safe0.81–2.740.26–1.981.07–4.71safer0.55–3.000.01–2.220.56–5.22actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.497.77safe2.43–6.141.78–5.194.21–11.34safer1.93–6.641.31–5.663.24–12.30
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6010.4626.05safe11.89–19.307.08–13.8318.97–33.13safer10.86–20.336.15–14.7617.01–35.10
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.716.8915.61safe6.20–11.234.59–9.2010.79–20.43safer5.33–12.093.80–9.999.13–22.09
Blocked shots
57%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.922.956.87safe2.34–5.501.54–4.363.87–9.87safer1.80–6.041.05–4.852.85–10.89
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.299.44safe2.95–7.362.31–6.265.26–13.63safer2.36–7.961.77–6.804.13–14.76
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.2544.69safe48.93–61.5738.37–51.00safer47.33–63.1636.77–52.60
Passes
75%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction432351783safe366–497287–416653–913safer349–515269–434618–948
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction73.1166.94safe68.89–77.3262.43–71.44safer67.59–78.6261.10–72.78
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6912.8624.56safe8.84–14.559.92–15.8118.76–30.36safer7.95–15.449.00–16.7316.95–32.16
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.813.25safe0.23–2.650.65–2.980.88–5.62safer0.00–2.990.32–3.310.20–6.30
Yellow cards
35%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.803.43safe0.57–2.690.68–2.921.25–5.61safer0.30–2.960.39–3.210.69–6.17
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.075.50safe1.01–3.841.52–4.632.53–8.47safer0.62–4.231.09–5.061.71–9.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.81–2.74 0.55–3.00 | 4.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.01–2.22 | 1.00 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.56–5.22 | 5.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.14 1.93–6.64 | — | 3.49 1.78–5.19 1.31–5.66 | — | 7.77 4.21–11.34 3.24–12.30 | — | 54% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.60 11.89–19.30 10.86–20.33 | — | 10.46 7.08–13.83 6.15–14.76 | — | 26.05 18.97–33.13 17.01–35.10 | — | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 8.71 6.20–11.23 5.33–12.09 | — | 6.89 4.59–9.20 3.80–9.99 | — | 15.61 10.79–20.43 9.13–22.09 | — | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.34–5.50 1.80–6.04 | — | 2.95 1.54–4.36 1.05–4.85 | — | 6.87 3.87–9.87 2.85–10.89 | — | 57% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.95–7.36 2.36–7.96 | — | 4.29 2.31–6.26 1.77–6.80 | — | 9.44 5.26–13.63 4.13–14.76 | — | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 55.25 48.93–61.57 47.33–63.16 | — | 44.69 38.37–51.00 36.77–52.60 | — | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 432 366–497 349–515 | — | 351 287–416 269–434 | — | 783 653–913 618–948 | — | 75% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.11 68.89–77.32 67.59–78.62 | — | 66.94 62.43–71.44 61.10–72.78 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 11.69 8.84–14.55 7.95–15.44 | — | 12.86 9.92–15.81 9.00–16.73 | — | 24.56 18.76–30.36 16.95–32.16 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–2.99 | — | 1.81 0.65–2.98 0.32–3.31 | — | 3.25 0.88–5.62 0.20–6.30 | — | 31% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.69 0.30–2.96 | — | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | — | 3.43 1.25–5.61 0.69–6.17 | — | 35% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.62–4.23 | — | 3.07 1.52–4.63 1.09–5.06 | — | 5.50 2.53–8.47 1.71–9.29 | — | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.