FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.142.72safe0.61–2.540.28–2.000.90–4.54safer0.35–2.800.04–2.250.39–5.05actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.713.958.66safe2.86–6.572.24–5.665.10–12.23safer2.36–7.071.78–6.134.13–13.19
Total shots
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction11.379.0220.40safe7.67–15.085.65–12.4013.32–27.48safer6.64–16.114.72–13.3311.35–29.44
Shots in box
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.272.78safe0.00–4.020.00–3.570.00–7.59safer0.00–4.880.00–4.370.00–9.25
Blocked shots
34%
50%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.550.300.85safe0.00–2.130.00–1.710.00–3.85safer0.00–2.670.00–2.200.00–4.87
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.808.80safe2.79–7.201.82–5.784.61–12.98safer2.20–7.801.29–6.323.48–14.11
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.0346.96safe45.71–58.3440.65–53.28safer44.11–59.9439.05–54.88
Passes
78%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction452360812safe387–517295–424682–942safer369–535278–442647–977
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction71.7168.38safe67.50–75.9363.88–72.89safer66.20–77.2362.55–74.22
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0912.5425.62safe10.23–15.949.59–15.4819.82–31.42safer9.34–16.838.67–16.4018.02–33.23
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.413.24safe0.62–3.040.25–2.580.87–5.62safer0.28–3.380.00–2.910.20–6.29
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.793.35safe0.51–2.620.67–2.911.17–5.53safer0.23–2.890.38–3.200.61–6.09
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.060.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.585.19safe1.19–4.021.03–4.132.22–8.16safer0.80–4.410.59–4.571.40–8.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 3.00 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.39–5.05 | 4.00 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.71 2.86–6.57 2.36–7.07 | — | 3.95 2.24–5.66 1.78–6.13 | — | 8.66 5.10–12.23 4.13–13.19 | — | 53% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 11.37 7.67–15.08 6.64–16.11 | — | 9.02 5.65–12.40 4.72–13.33 | — | 20.40 13.32–27.48 11.35–29.44 | — | 66% 26% |
| Shots in box | 1.50 0.00–4.02 0.00–4.88 | — | 1.27 0.00–3.57 0.00–4.37 | — | 2.78 0.00–7.59 0.00–9.25 | — | 43% 25% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 0.55 0.00–2.13 0.00–2.67 | — | 0.30 0.00–1.71 0.00–2.20 | — | 0.85 0.00–3.85 0.00–4.87 | — | 34% 50% 16% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.79–7.20 2.20–7.80 | — | 3.80 1.82–5.78 1.29–6.32 | — | 8.80 4.61–12.98 3.48–14.11 | — | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 52.03 45.71–58.34 44.11–59.94 | — | 46.96 40.65–53.28 39.05–54.88 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 452 387–517 369–535 | — | 360 295–424 278–442 | — | 812 682–942 647–977 | — | 78% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.71 67.50–75.93 66.20–77.23 | — | 68.38 63.88–72.89 62.55–74.22 | — | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 13.09 10.23–15.94 9.34–16.83 | — | 12.54 9.59–15.48 8.67–16.40 | — | 25.62 19.82–31.42 18.02–33.23 | — | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.62–3.04 0.28–3.38 | — | 1.41 0.25–2.58 0.00–2.91 | — | 3.24 0.87–5.62 0.20–6.29 | — | 47% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.62 0.23–2.89 | — | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | — | 3.35 1.17–5.53 0.61–6.09 | — | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.19–4.02 0.80–4.41 | — | 2.58 1.03–4.13 0.59–4.57 | — | 5.19 2.22–8.16 1.40–8.98 | — | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.