FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
60%
22%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.850.902.75safe0.88–2.810.04–1.760.93–4.57safer0.62–3.070.00–2.010.42–5.08actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.568.29safe2.87–6.581.86–5.274.72–11.85safer2.37–7.081.39–5.743.76–12.82
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction17.3812.4329.80safe13.67–21.089.05–15.8022.72–36.88safer12.64–22.118.12–16.7420.76–38.85
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.095.5614.65safe6.57–11.603.26–7.869.83–19.47safer5.71–12.472.46–8.668.17–21.13
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.816.51safe2.11–5.281.40–4.223.51–9.51safer1.58–5.820.91–4.712.49–10.53
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.322.467.78safe3.11–7.520.48–4.443.59–11.96safer2.52–8.120.00–4.982.46–13.09
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.4844.67safe50.16–62.7938.35–50.99safer48.56–64.3936.75–52.58
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction443382825safe378–508317–446695–955safer360–526300–464660–990
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction75.2270.19safe71.01–79.4465.69–74.70safer69.70–80.7464.36–76.03
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9113.0824.99safe9.05–14.7610.14–16.0319.19–30.79safer8.16–15.659.22–16.9417.38–32.59
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.713.16safe0.24–2.660.55–2.870.79–5.54safer0.00–3.010.22–3.210.12–6.21
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.953.39safe0.38–2.490.83–3.081.21–5.57safer0.11–2.760.54–3.370.65–6.13
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.192.956.14safe1.78–4.611.40–4.503.17–9.11safer1.39–4.990.96–4.942.35–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 0.88–2.81 0.62–3.07 | 0.00 | 0.90 0.04–1.76 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 1.00 | 60% 22% 18% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.87–6.58 2.37–7.08 | — | 3.56 1.86–5.27 1.39–5.74 | — | 8.29 4.72–11.85 3.76–12.82 | — | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 17.38 13.67–21.08 12.64–22.11 | — | 12.43 9.05–15.80 8.12–16.74 | — | 29.80 22.72–36.88 20.76–38.85 | — | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.09 6.57–11.60 5.71–12.47 | — | 5.56 3.26–7.86 2.46–8.66 | — | 14.65 9.83–19.47 8.17–21.13 | — | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 2.11–5.28 1.58–5.82 | — | 2.81 1.40–4.22 0.91–4.71 | — | 6.51 3.51–9.51 2.49–10.53 | — | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.52 2.52–8.12 | — | 2.46 0.48–4.44 0.00–4.98 | — | 7.78 3.59–11.96 2.46–13.09 | — | 80% |
| Possession % | 56.48 50.16–62.79 48.56–64.39 | — | 44.67 38.35–50.99 36.75–52.58 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 443 378–508 360–526 | — | 382 317–446 300–464 | — | 825 695–955 660–990 | — | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.22 71.01–79.44 69.70–80.74 | — | 70.19 65.69–74.70 64.36–76.03 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.05–14.76 8.16–15.65 | — | 13.08 10.14–16.03 9.22–16.94 | — | 24.99 19.19–30.79 17.38–32.59 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.24–2.66 0.00–3.01 | — | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.22–3.21 | — | 3.16 0.79–5.54 0.12–6.21 | — | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.49 0.11–2.76 | — | 1.95 0.83–3.08 0.54–3.37 | — | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.65–6.13 | — | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.78–4.61 1.39–4.99 | — | 2.95 1.40–4.50 0.96–4.94 | — | 6.14 3.17–9.11 2.35–9.93 | — | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.