FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.082.92safe0.88–2.800.22–1.941.10–4.74safer0.62–3.060.00–2.190.59–5.25actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.999.18safe3.33–7.042.29–5.705.62–12.74safer2.83–7.541.82–6.174.65–13.71
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction12.079.3821.45safe8.36–15.776.01–12.7614.37–28.53safer7.33–16.805.07–13.6912.41–30.49
Shots in box
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.262.89safe0.00–4.150.00–3.560.00–7.71safer0.00–5.010.00–4.360.00–9.37
Blocked shots
28%
53%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.460.320.77safe0.00–2.040.00–1.730.00–3.77safer0.00–2.570.00–2.220.00–4.79
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.699.06safe3.16–7.571.72–5.674.88–13.25safer2.57–8.171.18–6.213.75–14.38
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.5246.08safe47.20–59.8439.76–52.39safer45.60–61.4338.16–53.99
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction443374818safe378–509310–439688–948safer360–526292–457653–983
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction70.8067.97safe66.58–75.0163.47–72.48safer65.28–76.3262.13–73.81
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8311.6323.46safe8.97–14.698.68–14.5717.66–29.26safer8.09–15.577.77–15.4915.85–31.06
Offsides
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.092.61safe0.31–2.730.00–2.250.24–4.98safer0.00–3.080.00–2.580.00–5.66
Yellow cards
32%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.853.38safe0.48–2.590.73–2.971.21–5.56safer0.21–2.860.44–3.260.65–6.12
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.424.65safe0.81–3.640.87–3.981.68–7.62safer0.42–4.030.44–4.410.86–8.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.80 0.62–3.06 | 0.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.00 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.59–5.25 | 1.00 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.33–7.04 2.83–7.54 | — | 3.99 2.29–5.70 1.82–6.17 | — | 9.18 5.62–12.74 4.65–13.71 | — | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 12.07 8.36–15.77 7.33–16.80 | — | 9.38 6.01–12.76 5.07–13.69 | — | 21.45 14.37–28.53 12.41–30.49 | — | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 1.63 0.00–4.15 0.00–5.01 | — | 1.26 0.00–3.56 0.00–4.36 | — | 2.89 0.00–7.71 0.00–9.37 | — | 46% 24% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 0.46 0.00–2.04 0.00–2.57 | — | 0.32 0.00–1.73 0.00–2.22 | — | 0.77 0.00–3.77 0.00–4.79 | — | 28% 53% 19% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.16–7.57 2.57–8.17 | — | 3.69 1.72–5.67 1.18–6.21 | — | 9.06 4.88–13.25 3.75–14.38 | — | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.52 47.20–59.84 45.60–61.43 | — | 46.08 39.76–52.39 38.16–53.99 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 443 378–509 360–526 | — | 374 310–439 292–457 | — | 818 688–948 653–983 | — | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.80 66.58–75.01 65.28–76.32 | — | 67.97 63.47–72.48 62.13–73.81 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.97–14.69 8.09–15.57 | — | 11.63 8.68–14.57 7.77–15.49 | — | 23.46 17.66–29.26 15.85–31.06 | — | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.08 | — | 1.09 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.58 | — | 2.61 0.24–4.98 0.00–5.66 | — | 47% 26% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.59 0.21–2.86 | — | 1.85 0.73–2.97 0.44–3.26 | — | 3.38 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | — | 32% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.81–3.64 0.42–4.03 | — | 2.42 0.87–3.98 0.44–4.41 | — | 4.65 1.68–7.62 0.86–8.44 | — | 37% 19% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+