FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
66%
19%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.230.973.20safe1.27–3.190.11–1.831.38–5.02safer1.01–3.450.00–2.080.87–5.53actual7.000.007.00
Shots on target
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.9510.07safe3.26–6.983.25–6.666.51–13.64safer2.76–7.482.78–7.135.54–14.61
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction18.7914.1532.94safe15.09–22.4910.77–17.5325.86–40.02safer14.06–23.529.84–18.4623.89–41.98
Shots in box
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.886.6016.48safe7.37–12.404.29–8.9011.66–21.30safer6.50–13.263.50–9.6910.00–22.96
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.112.636.74safe2.52–5.691.22–4.043.74–9.73safer1.99–6.220.73–4.532.72–10.76
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.173.698.86safe2.96–7.371.72–5.674.68–13.05safer2.37–7.971.18–6.213.55–14.18
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.8941.44safe54.57–67.2135.12–47.76safer52.98–68.8033.52–49.35
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction556337893safe491–621273–402763–1023safer473–639255–419728–1058
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction82.6368.00safe78.42–86.8563.50–72.51safer77.12–88.1562.17–73.84
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0912.4423.53safe8.23–13.959.49–15.3917.73–29.33safer7.35–14.838.58–16.3015.92–31.13
Offsides
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.953.34safe0.18–2.600.78–3.110.96–5.71safer0.00–2.940.45–3.440.29–6.38
Yellow cards
38%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.883.69safe0.75–2.860.76–3.001.51–5.86safer0.48–3.130.47–3.290.95–6.43
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.013.096.10safe1.59–4.421.54–4.653.13–9.07safer1.20–4.811.11–5.082.31–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.23 1.27–3.19 1.01–3.45 | 7.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.08 | 0.00 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.87–5.53 | 7.00 | 66% 19% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.26–6.98 2.76–7.48 | — | 4.95 3.25–6.66 2.78–7.13 | — | 10.07 6.51–13.64 5.54–14.61 | — | 46% 42% |
| Total shots | 18.79 15.09–22.49 14.06–23.52 | — | 14.15 10.77–17.53 9.84–18.46 | — | 32.94 25.86–40.02 23.89–41.98 | — | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.88 7.37–12.40 6.50–13.26 | — | 6.60 4.29–8.90 3.50–9.69 | — | 16.48 11.66–21.30 10.00–22.96 | — | 75% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.52–5.69 1.99–6.22 | — | 2.63 1.22–4.04 0.73–4.53 | — | 6.74 3.74–9.73 2.72–10.76 | — | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.37 2.37–7.97 | — | 3.69 1.72–5.67 1.18–6.21 | — | 8.86 4.68–13.05 3.55–14.18 | — | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 60.89 54.57–67.21 52.98–68.80 | — | 41.44 35.12–47.76 33.52–49.35 | — | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 556 491–621 473–639 | — | 337 273–402 255–419 | — | 893 763–1023 728–1058 | — | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.63 78.42–86.85 77.12–88.15 | — | 68.00 63.50–72.51 62.17–73.84 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.23–13.95 7.35–14.83 | — | 12.44 9.49–15.39 8.58–16.30 | — | 23.53 17.73–29.33 15.92–31.13 | — | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.18–2.60 0.00–2.94 | — | 1.95 0.78–3.11 0.45–3.44 | — | 3.34 0.96–5.71 0.29–6.38 | — | 27% 22% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.13 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.43 | — | 38% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.59–4.42 1.20–4.81 | — | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.08 | — | 6.10 3.13–9.07 2.31–9.89 | — | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.