FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.182.72safe0.58–2.500.32–2.040.90–4.54safer0.32–2.760.08–2.290.39–5.05actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.108.95safe2.99–6.712.39–5.815.39–12.52safer2.50–7.211.93–6.284.42–13.48
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction12.089.7521.83safe8.37–15.786.38–13.1314.75–28.91safer7.34–16.815.45–14.0612.79–30.88
Shots in box
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.183.23safe0.00–4.570.00–3.480.00–8.04safer0.00–5.430.00–4.270.00–9.71
Blocked shots
23%
57%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.350.320.67safe0.00–1.940.00–1.730.00–3.67safer0.00–2.470.00–2.220.00–4.69
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.379.67safe3.10–7.512.39–6.345.49–13.86safer2.51–8.111.85–6.884.36–14.99
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.2846.25safe45.96–58.6039.93–52.57safer44.36–60.1938.33–54.17
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction424369793safe359–490304–434663–923safer341–507287–451628–958
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction71.8968.51safe67.68–76.1164.00–73.01safer66.38–77.4162.67–74.34
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5111.4222.92safe8.65–14.368.47–14.3617.12–28.73safer7.76–15.257.55–15.2815.32–30.53
Offsides
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.532.90safe0.16–2.580.37–2.690.53–5.28safer0.00–2.930.04–3.030.00–5.95
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.913.48safe0.51–2.620.79–3.031.30–5.65safer0.24–2.900.50–3.320.74–6.22
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.514.49safe0.56–3.390.96–4.071.52–7.46safer0.17–3.780.53–4.500.70–8.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.58–2.50 0.32–2.76 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.08–2.29 | 0.00 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.39–5.05 | 2.00 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.71 2.50–7.21 | — | 4.10 2.39–5.81 1.93–6.28 | — | 8.95 5.39–12.52 4.42–13.48 | — | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.37–15.78 7.34–16.81 | — | 9.75 6.38–13.13 5.45–14.06 | — | 21.83 14.75–28.91 12.79–30.88 | — | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 2.05 0.00–4.57 0.00–5.43 | — | 1.18 0.00–3.48 0.00–4.27 | — | 3.23 0.00–8.04 0.00–9.71 | — | 58% 21% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 0.35 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.47 | — | 0.32 0.00–1.73 0.00–2.22 | — | 0.67 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.69 | — | 23% 57% 20% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.51 2.51–8.11 | — | 4.37 2.39–6.34 1.85–6.88 | — | 9.67 5.49–13.86 4.36–14.99 | — | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.28 45.96–58.60 44.36–60.19 | — | 46.25 39.93–52.57 38.33–54.17 | — | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 424 359–490 341–507 | — | 369 304–434 287–451 | — | 793 663–923 628–958 | — | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.89 67.68–76.11 66.38–77.41 | — | 68.51 64.00–73.01 62.67–74.34 | — | — | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.65–14.36 7.76–15.25 | — | 11.42 8.47–14.36 7.55–15.28 | — | 22.92 17.12–28.73 15.32–30.53 | — | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.16–2.58 0.00–2.93 | — | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.04–3.03 | — | 2.90 0.53–5.28 0.00–5.95 | — | 34% 25% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.62 0.24–2.90 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | — | 3.48 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.22 | — | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.98 0.56–3.39 0.17–3.78 | — | 2.51 0.96–4.07 0.53–4.50 | — | 4.49 1.52–7.46 0.70–8.28 | — | 31% 19% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+