FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.082.88safe0.84–2.760.22–1.941.06–4.70safer0.58–3.020.00–2.180.55–5.21actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
45%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.305.2010.50safe3.44–7.153.50–6.916.94–14.07safer2.94–7.653.03–7.385.97–15.03
Total shots
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5714.4728.04safe9.87–17.2711.09–17.8520.96–35.13safer8.84–18.3110.16–18.7819.00–37.09
Shots in box
43%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction6.656.7913.44safe4.14–9.174.48–9.098.62–18.26safer3.27–10.033.69–9.886.96–19.92
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.346.34safe1.42–4.581.92–4.753.34–9.34safer0.88–5.121.44–5.242.32–10.36
Corners
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.677.66safe1.78–6.191.69–5.653.47–11.84safer1.19–6.791.16–6.192.34–12.97
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.5246.26safe47.20–59.8339.94–52.58safer45.60–61.4338.35–54.18
Passes
69%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction413353765safe347–478288–417635–895safer330–496270–435600–930
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction67.0164.92safe62.79–71.2360.41–69.43safer61.49–72.5359.08–70.76
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1112.0524.16safe9.25–14.979.10–14.9918.36–29.96safer8.37–15.858.18–15.9116.55–31.76
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.903.50safe0.39–2.810.74–3.061.12–5.87safer0.04–3.150.41–3.400.45–6.55
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.863.22safe0.30–2.410.74–2.981.04–5.39safer0.03–2.680.45–3.270.48–5.95
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.050.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.925.87safe1.54–4.371.36–4.472.90–8.84safer1.15–4.760.93–4.902.08–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.76 0.58–3.02 | 3.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.18 | 2.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 5.00 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.15 2.94–7.65 | — | 5.20 3.50–6.91 3.03–7.38 | — | 10.50 6.94–14.07 5.97–15.03 | — | 45% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.57 9.87–17.27 8.84–18.31 | — | 14.47 11.09–17.85 10.16–18.78 | — | 28.04 20.96–35.13 19.00–37.09 | — | 40% 53% |
| Shots in box | 6.65 4.14–9.17 3.27–10.03 | — | 6.79 4.48–9.09 3.69–9.88 | — | 13.44 8.62–18.26 6.96–19.92 | — | 43% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.42–4.58 0.88–5.12 | — | 3.34 1.92–4.75 1.44–5.24 | — | 6.34 3.34–9.34 2.32–10.36 | — | 37% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 3.99 1.78–6.19 1.19–6.79 | — | 3.67 1.69–5.65 1.16–6.19 | — | 7.66 3.47–11.84 2.34–12.97 | — | 47% 15% 38% |
| Possession % | 53.52 47.20–59.83 45.60–61.43 | — | 46.26 39.94–52.58 38.35–54.18 | — | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 413 347–478 330–496 | — | 353 288–417 270–435 | — | 765 635–895 600–930 | — | 69% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.01 62.79–71.23 61.49–72.53 | — | 64.92 60.41–69.43 59.08–70.76 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.25–14.97 8.37–15.85 | — | 12.05 9.10–14.99 8.18–15.91 | — | 24.16 18.36–29.96 16.55–31.76 | — | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.39–2.81 0.04–3.15 | — | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.41–3.40 | — | 3.50 1.12–5.87 0.45–6.55 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.30–2.41 0.03–2.68 | — | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | — | 3.22 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.95 | — | 28% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.54–4.37 1.15–4.76 | — | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | — | 5.87 2.90–8.84 2.08–9.66 | — | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+