FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.322.97safe0.69–2.610.46–2.181.15–4.79safer0.43–2.870.22–2.430.64–5.30actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.344.989.32safe2.48–6.193.28–6.695.76–12.89safer1.98–6.692.81–7.164.79–13.85
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8512.8126.66safe10.15–17.569.43–16.1919.58–33.75safer9.12–18.598.50–17.1217.62–35.71
Shots in box
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.045.588.62safe0.53–5.563.28–7.883.80–13.44safer0.00–6.422.48–8.682.14–15.10
Blocked shots
21%
18%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.604.11safe0.00–3.091.18–4.011.11–7.10safer0.00–3.630.70–4.500.09–8.12
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.739.67safe2.73–7.142.76–6.715.48–13.85safer2.13–7.732.22–7.254.35–14.98
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.1150.93safe41.79–54.4344.61–57.25safer40.20–56.0243.02–58.85
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction320375695safe255–385311–440565–825safer237–403293–458530–860
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction62.3468.59safe58.12–66.5564.09–73.10safer56.82–67.8662.76–74.43
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5212.9525.47safe9.67–15.3810.00–15.8919.67–31.28safer8.78–16.279.09–16.8117.87–33.08
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.863.37safe0.31–2.720.70–3.021.00–5.74safer0.00–3.070.36–3.350.32–6.42
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.783.47safe0.63–2.740.66–2.901.29–5.65safer0.36–3.020.37–3.190.73–6.21
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.086.02safe1.53–4.361.53–4.633.05–8.99safer1.14–4.751.09–5.072.23–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.69–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 1.00 | 1.32 0.46–2.18 0.22–2.43 | 3.00 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.64–5.30 | 4.00 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.48–6.19 1.98–6.69 | — | 4.98 3.28–6.69 2.81–7.16 | — | 9.32 5.76–12.89 4.79–13.85 | — | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.85 10.15–17.56 9.12–18.59 | — | 12.81 9.43–16.19 8.50–17.12 | — | 26.66 19.58–33.75 17.62–35.71 | — | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 3.04 0.53–5.56 0.00–6.42 | — | 5.58 3.28–7.88 2.48–8.68 | — | 8.62 3.80–13.44 2.14–15.10 | — | 15% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 1.51 0.00–3.09 0.00–3.63 | — | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.70–4.50 | — | 4.11 1.11–7.10 0.09–8.12 | — | 21% 18% 61% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.73–7.14 2.13–7.73 | — | 4.73 2.76–6.71 2.22–7.25 | — | 9.67 5.48–13.85 4.35–14.98 | — | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 48.11 41.79–54.43 40.20–56.02 | — | 50.93 44.61–57.25 43.02–58.85 | — | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 320 255–385 237–403 | — | 375 311–440 293–458 | — | 695 565–825 530–860 | — | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.34 58.12–66.55 56.82–67.86 | — | 68.59 64.09–73.10 62.76–74.43 | — | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.67–15.38 8.78–16.27 | — | 12.95 10.00–15.89 9.09–16.81 | — | 25.47 19.67–31.28 17.87–33.08 | — | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.31–2.72 0.00–3.07 | — | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.36–3.35 | — | 3.37 1.00–5.74 0.32–6.42 | — | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.63–2.74 0.36–3.02 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | — | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.21 | — | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.14–4.75 | — | 3.08 1.53–4.63 1.09–5.07 | — | 6.02 3.05–8.99 2.23–9.81 | — | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+