FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
34%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.472.80safe0.37–2.300.61–2.330.98–4.63safer0.11–2.560.36–2.580.47–5.13actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.988.62safe2.78–6.492.28–5.695.05–12.18safer2.28–6.991.81–6.164.08–13.15
Total shots
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.798.4117.20safe5.09–12.505.03–11.7810.12–24.28safer4.06–13.534.10–12.728.16–26.24
Shots in box
18%
41%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction0.420.771.18safe0.00–2.940.00–3.070.00–6.00safer0.00–3.800.00–3.860.00–7.66
Blocked shots
27%
48%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction0.490.440.93safe0.00–2.070.00–1.860.00–3.93safer0.00–2.600.00–2.340.00–4.95
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.283.358.63safe3.08–7.491.37–5.334.45–12.81safer2.48–8.080.83–5.863.31–13.95
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.1851.08safe42.87–55.5044.76–57.40safer41.27–57.1043.16–58.99
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction368406773safe302–433341–470643–903safer285–451324–488608–938
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction64.4269.69safe60.21–68.6465.18–74.20safer58.91–69.9463.85–75.53
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0812.9226.01safe10.22–15.949.98–15.8720.20–31.81safer9.34–16.829.06–16.7918.40–33.61
Offsides
16%
54%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction0.280.470.75safe0.00–1.490.00–1.630.00–3.12safer0.00–1.830.00–1.970.00–3.80
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.853.56safe0.65–2.770.73–2.971.38–5.73safer0.38–3.040.44–3.260.82–6.29
Red cards
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.060.24safe0.03–0.330.00–0.260.00–0.59safer0.00–0.490.00–0.400.00–0.88
GK saves
27%
50%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction0.470.420.89safe0.00–1.880.00–1.970.00–3.86safer0.00–2.270.00–2.400.00–4.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.56 | 0.00 | 1.47 0.61–2.33 0.36–2.58 | 1.00 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.47–5.13 | 1.00 | 34% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | — | 3.98 2.28–5.69 1.81–6.16 | — | 8.62 5.05–12.18 4.08–13.15 | — | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 8.79 5.09–12.50 4.06–13.53 | — | 8.41 5.03–11.78 4.10–12.72 | — | 17.20 10.12–24.28 8.16–26.24 | — | 49% 41% |
| Shots in box | 0.42 0.00–2.94 0.00–3.80 | — | 0.77 0.00–3.07 0.00–3.86 | — | 1.18 0.00–6.00 0.00–7.66 | — | 18% 41% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 0.49 0.00–2.07 0.00–2.60 | — | 0.44 0.00–1.86 0.00–2.34 | — | 0.93 0.00–3.93 0.00–4.95 | — | 27% 48% 24% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.08–7.49 2.48–8.08 | — | 3.35 1.37–5.33 0.83–5.86 | — | 8.63 4.45–12.81 3.31–13.95 | — | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 49.18 42.87–55.50 41.27–57.10 | — | 51.08 44.76–57.40 43.16–58.99 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 368 302–433 285–451 | — | 406 341–470 324–488 | — | 773 643–903 608–938 | — | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.42 60.21–68.64 58.91–69.94 | — | 69.69 65.18–74.20 63.85–75.53 | — | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.22–15.94 9.34–16.82 | — | 12.92 9.98–15.87 9.06–16.79 | — | 26.01 20.20–31.81 18.40–33.61 | — | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 0.28 0.00–1.49 0.00–1.83 | — | 0.47 0.00–1.63 0.00–1.97 | — | 0.75 0.00–3.12 0.00–3.80 | — | 16% 54% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.65–2.77 0.38–3.04 | — | 1.85 0.73–2.97 0.44–3.26 | — | 3.56 1.38–5.73 0.82–6.29 | — | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.03–0.33 0.00–0.49 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | — | 16% 79% |
| GK saves | 0.47 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.27 | — | 0.42 0.00–1.97 0.00–2.40 | — | 0.89 0.00–3.86 0.00–4.68 | — | 27% 50% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+