FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.242.81safe0.61–2.540.38–2.100.99–4.63safer0.35–2.800.13–2.340.48–5.14actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.143.688.82safe3.29–7.001.97–5.395.26–12.39safer2.79–7.501.51–5.864.29–13.35
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3011.3225.62safe10.60–18.017.94–14.6918.54–32.70safer9.57–19.047.01–15.6316.57–34.66
Shots in box
41%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction6.877.2114.08safe4.36–9.394.91–9.519.26–18.90safer3.49–10.254.11–10.317.60–20.56
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.247.03safe2.21–5.371.82–4.654.03–10.02safer1.67–5.911.33–5.143.01–11.04
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.109.12safe2.81–7.222.12–6.084.93–13.30safer2.22–7.821.58–6.623.80–14.43
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.2154.49safe38.89–51.5348.17–60.81safer37.29–53.1246.57–62.40
Passes
18%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction328432760safe262–393367–497630–889safer245–410350–514594–925
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction64.4973.04safe60.27–68.7068.53–77.55safer58.97–70.0167.20–78.88
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2412.5324.77safe9.39–15.109.58–15.4718.97–30.57safer8.50–15.998.66–16.3917.16–32.37
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.743.50safe0.55–2.970.58–2.911.13–5.87safer0.20–3.310.25–3.240.45–6.55
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.783.34safe0.50–2.610.66–2.911.16–5.52safer0.23–2.880.37–3.200.60–6.08
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.230.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
27%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.345.70safe0.95–3.781.78–4.892.74–8.67safer0.56–4.171.35–5.321.92–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.54 0.35–2.80 | 2.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.13–2.34 | 1.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 3.00 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.14 3.29–7.00 2.79–7.50 | — | 3.68 1.97–5.39 1.51–5.86 | — | 8.82 5.26–12.39 4.29–13.35 | — | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.30 10.60–18.01 9.57–19.04 | — | 11.32 7.94–14.69 7.01–15.63 | — | 25.62 18.54–32.70 16.57–34.66 | — | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 6.87 4.36–9.39 3.49–10.25 | — | 7.21 4.91–9.51 4.11–10.31 | — | 14.08 9.26–18.90 7.60–20.56 | — | 41% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 2.21–5.37 1.67–5.91 | — | 3.24 1.82–4.65 1.33–5.14 | — | 7.03 4.03–10.02 3.01–11.04 | — | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.81–7.22 2.22–7.82 | — | 4.10 2.12–6.08 1.58–6.62 | — | 9.12 4.93–13.30 3.80–14.43 | — | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 45.21 38.89–51.53 37.29–53.12 | — | 54.49 48.17–60.81 46.57–62.40 | — | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 328 262–393 245–410 | — | 432 367–497 350–514 | — | 760 630–889 594–925 | — | 18% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.49 60.27–68.70 58.97–70.01 | — | 73.04 68.53–77.55 67.20–78.88 | — | — | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.24 9.39–15.10 8.50–15.99 | — | 12.53 9.58–15.47 8.66–16.39 | — | 24.77 18.97–30.57 17.16–32.37 | — | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.20–3.31 | — | 1.74 0.58–2.91 0.25–3.24 | — | 3.50 1.13–5.87 0.45–6.55 | — | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.23–2.88 | — | 1.78 0.66–2.91 0.37–3.20 | — | 3.34 1.16–5.52 0.60–6.08 | — | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.95–3.78 0.56–4.17 | — | 3.34 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.32 | — | 5.70 2.74–8.67 1.92–9.49 | — | 27% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.