FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.492.98safe0.53–2.460.63–2.351.16–4.80safer0.27–2.720.38–2.590.65–5.31actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.959.40safe2.60–6.313.24–6.665.84–12.97safer2.10–6.812.77–7.134.87–13.94
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3413.5126.85safe9.64–17.0410.13–16.8919.77–33.93safer8.61–18.079.20–17.8217.81–35.90
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.239.1514.38safe2.72–7.756.85–11.459.57–19.20safer1.85–8.616.05–12.257.90–20.86
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.816.99safe1.60–4.772.39–5.223.99–9.99safer1.06–5.301.91–5.712.97–11.01
Corners
39%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.414.729.13safe2.21–6.622.74–6.704.95–13.32safer1.61–7.212.21–7.243.82–14.45
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.5158.02safe35.19–47.8351.70–64.33safer33.60–49.4350.10–65.93
Passes
13%
87%
homeawaytotalprediction317448764safe252–382383–512634–894safer234–400365–530599–929
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction63.4073.54safe59.19–67.6269.04–78.05safer57.89–68.9267.70–79.38
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5112.6424.15safe8.65–14.379.69–15.5818.35–29.95safer7.77–15.258.78–16.5016.54–31.76
Offsides
40%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.843.71safe0.66–3.080.68–3.001.33–6.08safer0.31–3.420.35–3.340.66–6.76
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.683.19safe0.46–2.570.56–2.801.02–5.37safer0.19–2.840.27–3.090.46–5.93
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.040.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.230.00–0.45safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.74
GK saves
31%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.235.80safe1.16–3.991.67–4.782.83–8.77safer0.77–4.381.24–5.212.01–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.46 0.27–2.72 | 0.00 | 1.49 0.63–2.35 0.38–2.59 | 3.00 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.65–5.31 | 3.00 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.60–6.31 2.10–6.81 | — | 4.95 3.24–6.66 2.77–7.13 | — | 9.40 5.84–12.97 4.87–13.94 | — | 37% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.64–17.04 8.61–18.07 | — | 13.51 10.13–16.89 9.20–17.82 | — | 26.85 19.77–33.93 17.81–35.90 | — | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 5.23 2.72–7.75 1.85–8.61 | — | 9.15 6.85–11.45 6.05–12.25 | — | 14.38 9.57–19.20 7.90–20.86 | — | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.60–4.77 1.06–5.30 | — | 3.81 2.39–5.22 1.91–5.71 | — | 6.99 3.99–9.99 2.97–11.01 | — | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.41 2.21–6.62 1.61–7.21 | — | 4.72 2.74–6.70 2.21–7.24 | — | 9.13 4.95–13.32 3.82–14.45 | — | 39% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 41.51 35.19–47.83 33.60–49.43 | — | 58.02 51.70–64.33 50.10–65.93 | — | — | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 317 252–382 234–400 | — | 448 383–512 365–530 | — | 764 634–894 599–929 | — | 13% 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.40 59.19–67.62 57.89–68.92 | — | 73.54 69.04–78.05 67.70–79.38 | — | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.65–14.37 7.77–15.25 | — | 12.64 9.69–15.58 8.78–16.50 | — | 24.15 18.35–29.95 16.54–31.76 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.66–3.08 0.31–3.42 | — | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.35–3.34 | — | 3.71 1.33–6.08 0.66–6.76 | — | 40% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.57 0.19–2.84 | — | 1.68 0.56–2.80 0.27–3.09 | — | 3.19 1.02–5.37 0.46–5.93 | — | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | — | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.16–3.99 0.77–4.38 | — | 3.23 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.21 | — | 5.80 2.83–8.77 2.01–9.59 | — | 31% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.