Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.432.61safe0.22–2.140.57–2.290.79–4.43safer0.00–2.400.32–2.540.28–4.94actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.655.939.58safe1.79–5.514.22–7.646.02–13.14safer1.30–6.013.75–8.105.05–14.11
Total shots
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2512.4622.70safe6.54–13.959.08–15.8315.62–29.78safer5.51–14.988.15–16.7613.66–31.75
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.508.0412.55safe1.99–7.025.74–10.347.73–17.36safer1.12–7.884.94–11.146.07–19.02
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.386.65safe1.69–4.851.96–4.793.65–9.64safer1.15–5.391.48–5.282.63–10.67
Corners
50%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.597.72safe1.92–6.331.62–5.573.54–11.90safer1.32–6.921.08–6.112.40–13.03
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.8654.05safe39.54–52.1747.73–60.37safer37.94–53.7746.14–61.97
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction365420785safe300–431355–485655–915safer282–448338–502620–950
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction61.8269.98safe57.60–66.0365.47–74.49safer56.30–67.3464.14–75.82
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3513.4125.76safe9.49–15.2110.47–16.3619.96–31.56safer8.61–16.099.55–17.2818.16–33.37
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.813.44safe0.42–2.840.65–2.971.06–5.81safer0.07–3.180.31–3.300.39–6.48
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.863.45safe0.53–2.640.74–2.981.27–5.62safer0.26–2.910.45–3.270.71–6.18
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.040.13safe0.00–0.240.00–0.240.00–0.47safer0.00–0.390.00–0.380.00–0.77
GK saves
31%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.935.26safe0.91–3.741.38–4.492.29–8.23safer0.53–4.130.95–4.921.47–9.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 0.00 | 1.43 0.57–2.29 0.32–2.54 | 1.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 1.00 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.65 1.79–5.51 1.30–6.01 | — | 5.93 4.22–7.64 3.75–8.10 | — | 9.58 6.02–13.14 5.05–14.11 | — | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 10.25 6.54–13.95 5.51–14.98 | — | 12.46 9.08–15.83 8.15–16.76 | — | 22.70 15.62–29.78 13.66–31.75 | — | 28% 64% |
| Shots in box | 4.50 1.99–7.02 1.12–7.88 | — | 8.04 5.74–10.34 4.94–11.14 | — | 12.55 7.73–17.36 6.07–19.02 | — | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.69–4.85 1.15–5.39 | — | 3.38 1.96–4.79 1.48–5.28 | — | 6.65 3.65–9.64 2.63–10.67 | — | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.12 1.92–6.33 1.32–6.92 | — | 3.59 1.62–5.57 1.08–6.11 | — | 7.72 3.54–11.90 2.40–13.03 | — | 50% 14% 35% |
| Possession % | 45.86 39.54–52.17 37.94–53.77 | — | 54.05 47.73–60.37 46.14–61.97 | — | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 365 300–431 282–448 | — | 420 355–485 338–502 | — | 785 655–915 620–950 | — | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.82 57.60–66.03 56.30–67.34 | — | 69.98 65.47–74.49 64.14–75.82 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.49–15.21 8.61–16.09 | — | 13.41 10.47–16.36 9.55–17.28 | — | 25.76 19.96–31.56 18.16–33.37 | — | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.42–2.84 0.07–3.18 | — | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.31–3.30 | — | 3.44 1.06–5.81 0.39–6.48 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.53–2.64 0.26–2.91 | — | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | — | 3.45 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.18 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | — | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.91–3.74 0.53–4.13 | — | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | — | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | — | 31% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+