FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.172.63safe0.50–2.420.32–2.030.81–4.46safer0.24–2.680.07–2.280.30–4.96actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.038.77safe2.89–6.602.33–5.745.21–12.34safer2.39–7.101.86–6.214.24–13.31
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.409.1920.59safe7.70–15.115.81–12.5613.51–27.67safer6.67–16.144.88–13.4911.55–29.63
Shots in box
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.323.36safe0.00–4.550.00–3.630.00–8.18safer0.00–5.410.00–4.420.00–9.84
Blocked shots
28%
52%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction0.460.340.80safe0.00–2.050.00–1.750.00–3.80safer0.00–2.580.00–2.240.00–4.82
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.359.58safe3.03–7.442.37–6.335.40–13.76safer2.43–8.031.83–6.864.26–14.90
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction52.6246.50safe46.30–58.9440.18–52.82safer44.71–60.5438.59–54.42
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction426364790safe361–492299–428660–920safer343–509282–446625–955
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction70.9668.07safe66.75–75.1863.57–72.58safer65.45–76.4862.24–73.91
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4211.5823.01safe8.57–14.288.64–14.5317.20–28.81safer7.68–15.177.72–15.4415.40–30.61
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.583.33safe0.54–2.960.41–2.740.96–5.70safer0.20–3.310.08–3.070.28–6.38
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.913.51safe0.54–2.650.79–3.031.33–5.69safer0.27–2.930.50–3.320.77–6.25
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.795.19safe0.99–3.821.24–4.342.23–8.16safer0.60–4.210.80–4.781.40–8.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.42 0.24–2.68 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 2.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.30–4.96 | 3.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.89–6.60 2.39–7.10 | — | 4.03 2.33–5.74 1.86–6.21 | — | 8.77 5.21–12.34 4.24–13.31 | — | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 11.40 7.70–15.11 6.67–16.14 | — | 9.19 5.81–12.56 4.88–13.49 | — | 20.59 13.51–27.67 11.55–29.63 | — | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 2.03 0.00–4.55 0.00–5.41 | — | 1.32 0.00–3.63 0.00–4.42 | — | 3.36 0.00–8.18 0.00–9.84 | — | 54% 21% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 0.46 0.00–2.05 0.00–2.58 | — | 0.34 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.24 | — | 0.80 0.00–3.80 0.00–4.82 | — | 28% 52% 19% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.03–7.44 2.43–8.03 | — | 4.35 2.37–6.33 1.83–6.86 | — | 9.58 5.40–13.76 4.26–14.90 | — | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 52.62 46.30–58.94 44.71–60.54 | — | 46.50 40.18–52.82 38.59–54.42 | — | — | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 426 361–492 343–509 | — | 364 299–428 282–446 | — | 790 660–920 625–955 | — | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.96 66.75–75.18 65.45–76.48 | — | 68.07 63.57–72.58 62.24–73.91 | — | — | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.57–14.28 7.68–15.17 | — | 11.58 8.64–14.53 7.72–15.44 | — | 23.01 17.20–28.81 15.40–30.61 | — | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.20–3.31 | — | 1.58 0.41–2.74 0.08–3.07 | — | 3.33 0.96–5.70 0.28–6.38 | — | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.65 0.27–2.93 | — | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | — | 3.51 1.33–5.69 0.77–6.25 | — | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.99–3.82 0.60–4.21 | — | 2.79 1.24–4.34 0.80–4.78 | — | 5.19 2.23–8.16 1.40–8.98 | — | 35% 18% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+