FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.252.90safe0.69–2.610.39–2.111.08–4.73safer0.43–2.870.15–2.360.57–5.23actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.632.517.14safe2.78–6.490.80–4.223.58–10.71safer2.28–6.990.33–4.692.61–11.68
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction13.719.3623.07safe10.01–17.425.98–12.7415.99–30.15safer8.98–18.455.05–13.6714.03–32.12
Shots in box
55%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction7.376.3913.76safe4.86–9.894.09–8.698.95–18.58safer3.99–10.763.29–9.497.29–20.24
Blocked shots
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.886.00safe1.53–4.701.47–4.303.00–9.00safer1.00–5.240.98–4.781.98–10.02
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.043.848.88safe2.84–7.251.86–5.824.70–13.07safer2.24–7.841.33–6.363.57–14.20
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.3548.34safe45.03–57.6742.02–54.66safer43.44–59.2640.42–56.25
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction408399807safe343–474334–463677–937safer325–491317–481642–972
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction68.7572.28safe64.53–72.9767.77–76.79safer63.23–74.2766.44–78.12
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8010.7122.51safe8.95–14.667.76–13.6516.71–28.31safer8.06–15.556.84–14.5714.91–30.12
Offsides
49%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.753.99safe1.03–3.450.59–2.911.62–6.37safer0.69–3.800.26–3.250.95–7.04
Yellow cards
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.612.95safe0.28–2.400.49–2.730.77–5.12safer0.01–2.670.20–3.020.21–5.68
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.095.64safe1.13–3.961.54–4.642.67–8.60safer0.74–4.351.10–5.081.85–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.69–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 0.00 | 1.25 0.39–2.11 0.15–2.36 | 2.00 | 2.90 1.08–4.73 0.57–5.23 | 2.00 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | — | 2.51 0.80–4.22 0.33–4.69 | — | 7.14 3.58–10.71 2.61–11.68 | — | 73% 16% |
| Total shots | 13.71 10.01–17.42 8.98–18.45 | — | 9.36 5.98–12.74 5.05–13.67 | — | 23.07 15.99–30.15 14.03–32.12 | — | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 7.37 4.86–9.89 3.99–10.76 | — | 6.39 4.09–8.69 3.29–9.49 | — | 13.76 8.95–18.58 7.29–20.24 | — | 55% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.53–4.70 1.00–5.24 | — | 2.88 1.47–4.30 0.98–4.78 | — | 6.00 3.00–9.00 1.98–10.02 | — | 45% 17% 38% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.84–7.25 2.24–7.84 | — | 3.84 1.86–5.82 1.33–6.36 | — | 8.88 4.70–13.07 3.57–14.20 | — | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.35 45.03–57.67 43.44–59.26 | — | 48.34 42.02–54.66 40.42–56.25 | — | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 408 343–474 325–491 | — | 399 334–463 317–481 | — | 807 677–937 642–972 | — | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.75 64.53–72.97 63.23–74.27 | — | 72.28 67.77–76.79 66.44–78.12 | — | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.80 8.95–14.66 8.06–15.55 | — | 10.71 7.76–13.65 6.84–14.57 | — | 22.51 16.71–28.31 14.91–30.12 | — | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.03–3.45 0.69–3.80 | — | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.26–3.25 | — | 3.99 1.62–6.37 0.95–7.04 | — | 49% 20% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.28–2.40 0.01–2.67 | — | 1.61 0.49–2.73 0.20–3.02 | — | 2.95 0.77–5.12 0.21–5.68 | — | 32% 24% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | — | 3.09 1.54–4.64 1.10–5.08 | — | 5.64 2.67–8.60 1.85–9.43 | — | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.