FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
47%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.002.43safe0.47–2.390.15–1.860.61–4.26safer0.21–2.650.00–2.110.11–4.76actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
50%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.078.62safe2.69–6.402.36–5.785.05–12.18safer2.19–6.901.89–6.244.09–13.15
Total shots
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2610.7421.99safe7.55–14.967.36–14.1214.91–29.08safer6.52–15.996.43–15.0512.95–31.04
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.243.2810.52safe4.73–9.760.98–5.585.70–15.34safer3.86–10.620.18–6.374.04–17.00
Blocked shots
59%
18%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.641.634.27safe1.06–4.230.22–3.041.28–7.27safer0.53–4.760.00–3.530.25–8.29
Corners
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.137.51safe2.18–6.591.15–5.103.33–11.69safer1.58–7.180.61–5.642.19–12.83
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction56.6343.25safe50.31–62.9436.93–49.57safer48.71–64.5435.33–51.17
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction463387850safe398–528323–452720–980safer380–546305–469685–1015
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction73.8168.94safe69.60–78.0364.44–73.45safer68.29–79.3363.10–74.78
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8014.4527.24safe9.94–15.6511.50–17.3921.44–33.05safer9.05–16.5410.58–18.3119.64–34.85
Offsides
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.974.15safe0.97–3.390.81–3.131.78–6.53safer0.63–3.740.48–3.471.11–7.20
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.883.51safe0.58–2.690.76–3.001.34–5.69safer0.31–2.960.47–3.290.78–6.25
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.060.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.250.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
43%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.006.11safe1.70–4.531.45–4.563.14–9.08safer1.31–4.911.02–4.992.32–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 2.00 | 1.00 0.15–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 3.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.11–4.76 | 5.00 | 47% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.40 2.19–6.90 | — | 4.07 2.36–5.78 1.89–6.24 | — | 8.62 5.05–12.18 4.09–13.15 | — | 50% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 11.26 7.55–14.96 6.52–15.99 | — | 10.74 7.36–14.12 6.43–15.05 | — | 21.99 14.91–29.08 12.95–31.04 | — | 50% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.24 4.73–9.76 3.86–10.62 | — | 3.28 0.98–5.58 0.18–6.37 | — | 10.52 5.70–15.34 4.04–17.00 | — | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 2.64 1.06–4.23 0.53–4.76 | — | 1.63 0.22–3.04 0.00–3.53 | — | 4.27 1.28–7.27 0.25–8.29 | — | 59% 18% 23% |
| Corners | 4.38 2.18–6.59 1.58–7.18 | — | 3.13 1.15–5.10 0.61–5.64 | — | 7.51 3.33–11.69 2.19–12.83 | — | 61% 13% 26% |
| Possession % | 56.63 50.31–62.94 48.71–64.54 | — | 43.25 36.93–49.57 35.33–51.17 | — | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 463 398–528 380–546 | — | 387 323–452 305–469 | — | 850 720–980 685–1015 | — | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.81 69.60–78.03 68.29–79.33 | — | 68.94 64.44–73.45 63.10–74.78 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.80 9.94–15.65 9.05–16.54 | — | 14.45 11.50–17.39 10.58–18.31 | — | 27.24 21.44–33.05 19.64–34.85 | — | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 2.18 0.97–3.39 0.63–3.74 | — | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.48–3.47 | — | 4.15 1.78–6.53 1.11–7.20 | — | 44% 20% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.69 0.31–2.96 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | — | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.70–4.53 1.31–4.91 | — | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.99 | — | 6.11 3.14–9.08 2.32–9.90 | — | 43% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.