FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.132.59safe0.50–2.430.27–1.980.77–4.41safer0.24–2.690.02–2.230.26–4.92actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.048.79safe2.89–6.602.33–5.755.23–12.35safer2.39–7.101.87–6.224.26–13.32
Total shots
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.849.5421.39safe8.14–15.556.17–12.9214.30–28.47safer7.11–16.585.23–13.8512.34–30.43
Shots in box
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.143.17safe0.00–4.550.00–3.440.00–7.99safer0.00–5.410.00–4.240.00–9.65
Blocked shots
23%
57%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction0.350.320.67safe0.00–1.940.00–1.740.00–3.67safer0.00–2.470.00–2.220.00–4.69
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.139.45safe3.11–7.522.15–6.115.26–13.63safer2.52–8.121.61–6.644.13–14.76
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.2246.69safe45.90–58.5340.37–53.01safer44.30–60.1338.78–54.61
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction427363790safe362–492298–427660–920safer344–510281–445625–955
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction72.3868.13safe68.16–76.5963.62–72.63safer66.86–77.8962.29–73.96
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8910.3120.20safe7.03–12.757.37–13.2614.40–26.01safer6.15–13.636.45–14.1812.60–27.81
Offsides
30%
34%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction0.810.921.73safe0.00–2.020.00–2.090.00–4.10safer0.00–2.360.00–2.420.00–4.78
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.923.49safe0.51–2.620.80–3.041.31–5.66safer0.24–2.900.51–3.330.75–6.23
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.663.13safe0.06–2.890.10–3.210.17–6.10safer0.00–3.280.00–3.640.00–6.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.69 | 3.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.26–4.92 | 4.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.89–6.60 2.39–7.10 | — | 4.04 2.33–5.75 1.87–6.22 | — | 8.79 5.23–12.35 4.26–13.32 | — | 53% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 11.84 8.14–15.55 7.11–16.58 | — | 9.54 6.17–12.92 5.23–13.85 | — | 21.39 14.30–28.47 12.34–30.43 | — | 65% 27% |
| Shots in box | 2.03 0.00–4.55 0.00–5.41 | — | 1.14 0.00–3.44 0.00–4.24 | — | 3.17 0.00–7.99 0.00–9.65 | — | 58% 21% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 0.35 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.47 | — | 0.32 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.22 | — | 0.67 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.69 | — | 23% 57% 20% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.52 2.52–8.12 | — | 4.13 2.15–6.11 1.61–6.64 | — | 9.45 5.26–13.63 4.13–14.76 | — | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.22 45.90–58.53 44.30–60.13 | — | 46.69 40.37–53.01 38.78–54.61 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 427 362–492 344–510 | — | 363 298–427 281–445 | — | 790 660–920 625–955 | — | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.38 68.16–76.59 66.86–77.89 | — | 68.13 63.62–72.63 62.29–73.96 | — | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 9.89 7.03–12.75 6.15–13.63 | — | 10.31 7.37–13.26 6.45–14.18 | — | 20.20 14.40–26.01 12.60–27.81 | — | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 0.81 0.00–2.02 0.00–2.36 | — | 0.92 0.00–2.09 0.00–2.42 | — | 1.73 0.00–4.10 0.00–4.78 | — | 30% 34% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.62 0.24–2.90 | — | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | — | 3.49 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.23 | — | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.48 0.06–2.89 0.00–3.28 | — | 1.66 0.10–3.21 0.00–3.64 | — | 3.13 0.17–6.10 0.00–6.92 | — | 34% 24% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.