FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
63%
20%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.040.922.96safe1.08–3.010.06–1.781.14–4.79safer0.82–3.270.00–2.030.64–5.29actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.182.777.95safe3.32–7.031.06–4.484.39–11.51safer2.82–7.530.60–4.953.42–12.48
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction11.155.4316.59safe7.45–14.862.06–8.819.50–23.67safer6.42–15.891.12–9.747.54–25.63
Shots in box
35%
41%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction0.710.531.25safe0.00–3.230.00–2.830.00–6.06safer0.00–4.090.00–3.630.00–7.73
Blocked shots
20%
64%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.280.240.51safe0.00–1.860.00–1.650.00–3.51safer0.00–2.390.00–2.140.00–4.53
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.413.5210.93safe5.20–9.621.54–5.506.75–15.11safer4.61–10.211.00–6.035.61–16.24
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.1844.79safe48.86–61.4938.47–51.11safer47.26–63.0936.87–52.70
Passes
61%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction410376786safe345–476311–441656–916safer327–493294–458621–951
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction70.8768.71safe66.66–75.0964.20–73.22safer65.36–76.3962.87–74.55
Fouls
42%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4616.0431.50safe12.60–18.3113.10–18.9925.69–37.30safer11.71–19.2012.18–19.9023.89–39.10
Offsides
37%
40%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction0.760.541.30safe0.00–1.970.00–1.700.00–3.67safer0.00–2.310.00–2.030.00–4.35
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.813.43safe0.57–2.680.69–2.931.26–5.61safer0.30–2.950.40–3.220.69–6.17
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.222.68safe0.05–2.880.00–2.770.00–5.65safer0.00–3.270.00–3.200.00–6.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.08–3.01 0.82–3.27 | 1.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.64–5.29 | 1.00 | 63% 20% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.18 3.32–7.03 2.82–7.53 | — | 2.77 1.06–4.48 0.60–4.95 | — | 7.95 4.39–11.51 3.42–12.48 | — | 75% 15% |
| Total shots | 11.15 7.45–14.86 6.42–15.89 | — | 5.43 2.06–8.81 1.12–9.74 | — | 16.59 9.50–23.67 7.54–25.63 | — | 90% |
| Shots in box | 0.71 0.00–3.23 0.00–4.09 | — | 0.53 0.00–2.83 0.00–3.63 | — | 1.25 0.00–6.06 0.00–7.73 | — | 35% 41% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.28 0.00–1.86 0.00–2.39 | — | 0.24 0.00–1.65 0.00–2.14 | — | 0.51 0.00–3.51 0.00–4.53 | — | 20% 64% 16% |
| Corners | 7.41 5.20–9.62 4.61–10.21 | — | 3.52 1.54–5.50 1.00–6.03 | — | 10.93 6.75–15.11 5.61–16.24 | — | 85% |
| Possession % | 55.18 48.86–61.49 47.26–63.09 | — | 44.79 38.47–51.11 36.87–52.70 | — | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 410 345–476 327–493 | — | 376 311–441 294–458 | — | 786 656–916 621–951 | — | 61% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.87 66.66–75.09 65.36–76.39 | — | 68.71 64.20–73.22 62.87–74.55 | — | — | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 15.46 12.60–18.31 11.71–19.20 | — | 16.04 13.10–18.99 12.18–19.90 | — | 31.50 25.69–37.30 23.89–39.10 | — | 42% 51% |
| Offsides | 0.76 0.00–1.97 0.00–2.31 | — | 0.54 0.00–1.70 0.00–2.03 | — | 1.30 0.00–3.67 0.00–4.35 | — | 37% 40% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.95 | — | 1.81 0.69–2.93 0.40–3.22 | — | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.69–6.17 | — | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.46 0.05–2.88 0.00–3.27 | — | 1.22 0.00–2.77 0.00–3.20 | — | 2.68 0.00–5.65 0.00–6.47 | — | 43% 26% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.