FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.192.55safe0.39–2.320.33–2.050.73–4.37safer0.13–2.580.09–2.300.22–4.88actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.788.60safe2.97–6.682.07–5.485.04–12.16safer2.47–7.181.60–5.954.07–13.13
Total shots
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.558.2718.83safe6.85–14.264.90–11.6511.75–25.91safer5.82–15.293.96–12.589.78–27.87
Shots in box
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.022.57safe0.00–4.070.00–3.320.00–7.39safer0.00–4.930.00–4.120.00–9.05
Blocked shots
35%
52%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.550.240.79safe0.00–2.130.00–1.650.00–3.79safer0.00–2.670.00–2.140.00–4.81
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.023.898.91safe2.82–7.231.91–5.864.72–13.09safer2.22–7.821.37–6.403.59–14.22
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction51.2647.47safe44.94–57.5841.15–53.79safer43.35–59.1739.56–55.39
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction404372776safe339–469307–436646–906safer321–487290–454611–941
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction66.7366.75safe62.51–70.9462.24–71.26safer61.21–72.2460.91–72.59
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4012.4424.84safe9.55–15.269.49–15.3819.04–30.64safer8.66–16.148.57–16.3017.23–32.44
Offsides
40%
34%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction0.980.721.70safe0.00–2.190.00–1.880.00–4.07safer0.00–2.540.00–2.220.00–4.75
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.873.47safe0.55–2.660.75–2.991.30–5.65safer0.28–2.940.46–3.280.74–6.21
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.083.64safe0.15–2.980.52–3.630.67–6.61safer0.00–3.370.09–4.060.00–7.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.13–2.58 | 3.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 1.00 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.22–4.88 | 4.00 | 41% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.82 2.97–6.68 2.47–7.18 | — | 3.78 2.07–5.48 1.60–5.95 | — | 8.60 5.04–12.16 4.07–13.13 | — | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 10.55 6.85–14.26 5.82–15.29 | — | 8.27 4.90–11.65 3.96–12.58 | — | 18.83 11.75–25.91 9.78–27.87 | — | 66% 26% |
| Shots in box | 1.55 0.00–4.07 0.00–4.93 | — | 1.02 0.00–3.32 0.00–4.12 | — | 2.57 0.00–7.39 0.00–9.05 | — | 50% 25% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 0.55 0.00–2.13 0.00–2.67 | — | 0.24 0.00–1.65 0.00–2.14 | — | 0.79 0.00–3.79 0.00–4.81 | — | 35% 52% 13% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.82–7.23 2.22–7.82 | — | 3.89 1.91–5.86 1.37–6.40 | — | 8.91 4.72–13.09 3.59–14.22 | — | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 51.26 44.94–57.58 43.35–59.17 | — | 47.47 41.15–53.79 39.56–55.39 | — | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 404 339–469 321–487 | — | 372 307–436 290–454 | — | 776 646–906 611–941 | — | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.73 62.51–70.94 61.21–72.24 | — | 66.75 62.24–71.26 60.91–72.59 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 12.40 9.55–15.26 8.66–16.14 | — | 12.44 9.49–15.38 8.57–16.30 | — | 24.84 19.04–30.64 17.23–32.44 | — | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 0.98 0.00–2.19 0.00–2.54 | — | 0.72 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.22 | — | 1.70 0.00–4.07 0.00–4.75 | — | 40% 34% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.55–2.66 0.28–2.94 | — | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | — | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | — | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.57 0.15–2.98 0.00–3.37 | — | 2.08 0.52–3.63 0.09–4.06 | — | 3.64 0.67–6.61 0.00–7.43 | — | 29% 21% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+