FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
29%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.622.83safe0.25–2.180.76–2.481.01–4.66safer0.00–2.440.51–2.730.50–5.16actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.308.24safe2.08–5.792.59–6.014.67–11.80safer1.58–6.292.13–6.483.71–12.77
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3612.9924.36safe7.66–15.069.62–16.3717.27–31.44safer6.63–16.098.69–17.3015.31–33.40
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.267.5915.85safe5.75–10.785.28–9.8911.03–20.67safer4.88–11.644.49–10.689.37–22.33
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.086.46safe1.80–4.971.67–4.503.47–9.46safer1.26–5.501.18–4.982.44–10.48
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.515.149.65safe2.31–6.723.16–7.125.47–13.84safer1.71–7.312.62–7.664.34–14.97
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.6951.63safe42.37–55.0145.31–57.95safer40.78–56.6043.72–59.55
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction389372761safe324–454307–436631–891safer306–472290–454596–926
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction73.2270.85safe69.00–77.4366.34–75.35safer67.70–78.7465.01–76.68
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1312.2923.42safe8.27–13.999.35–15.2417.62–29.22safer7.39–14.878.43–16.1615.82–31.03
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.973.86safe0.68–3.100.80–3.131.48–6.23safer0.34–3.440.47–3.460.81–6.90
Yellow cards
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.512.97safe0.41–2.520.39–2.630.79–5.15safer0.14–2.790.10–2.920.23–5.71
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
45%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.615.48safe1.45–4.281.06–4.172.51–8.44safer1.06–4.670.63–4.601.69–9.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 0.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.51–2.73 | 1.00 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.50–5.16 | 1.00 | 29% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.79 1.58–6.29 | — | 4.30 2.59–6.01 2.13–6.48 | — | 8.24 4.67–11.80 3.71–12.77 | — | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 11.36 7.66–15.06 6.63–16.09 | — | 12.99 9.62–16.37 8.69–17.30 | — | 24.36 17.27–31.44 15.31–33.40 | — | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 8.26 5.75–10.78 4.88–11.64 | — | 7.59 5.28–9.89 4.49–10.68 | — | 15.85 11.03–20.67 9.37–22.33 | — | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.80–4.97 1.26–5.50 | — | 3.08 1.67–4.50 1.18–4.98 | — | 6.46 3.47–9.46 2.44–10.48 | — | 47% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.31–6.72 1.71–7.31 | — | 5.14 3.16–7.12 2.62–7.66 | — | 9.65 5.47–13.84 4.34–14.97 | — | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 48.69 42.37–55.01 40.78–56.60 | — | 51.63 45.31–57.95 43.72–59.55 | — | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 389 324–454 306–472 | — | 372 307–436 290–454 | — | 761 631–891 596–926 | — | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.22 69.00–77.43 67.70–78.74 | — | 70.85 66.34–75.35 65.01–76.68 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.13 8.27–13.99 7.39–14.87 | — | 12.29 9.35–15.24 8.43–16.16 | — | 23.42 17.62–29.22 15.82–31.03 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.34–3.44 | — | 1.97 0.80–3.13 0.47–3.46 | — | 3.86 1.48–6.23 0.81–6.90 | — | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.52 0.14–2.79 | — | 1.51 0.39–2.63 0.10–2.92 | — | 2.97 0.79–5.15 0.23–5.71 | — | 37% 24% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.45–4.28 1.06–4.67 | — | 2.61 1.06–4.17 0.63–4.60 | — | 5.48 2.51–8.44 1.69–9.27 | — | 45% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.