FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.182.61safe0.47–2.390.32–2.040.79–4.43safer0.21–2.650.08–2.290.28–4.94actual7.002.009.00
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.763.718.47safe2.90–6.612.00–5.424.91–12.03safer2.40–7.111.54–5.893.94–13.00
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8112.7326.54safe10.10–17.519.35–16.1119.46–33.62safer9.07–18.548.42–17.0417.50–35.58
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.795.7215.51safe7.28–12.313.42–8.0210.70–20.33safer6.41–13.172.62–8.829.03–21.99
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.365.90safe1.96–5.130.94–3.772.90–8.90safer1.43–5.660.45–4.261.88–9.92
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.524.029.54safe3.31–7.722.05–6.005.36–13.72safer2.72–8.321.51–6.544.23–14.86
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction54.9043.83safe48.59–61.2237.51–50.15safer46.99–62.8235.91–51.74
Passes
82%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction460351811safe395–526286–415681–941safer377–543269–433646–976
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction75.7065.80safe71.48–79.9161.29–70.31safer70.18–81.2159.96–71.64
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7910.9221.71safe7.93–13.647.98–13.8715.91–27.51safer7.04–14.537.06–14.7914.10–29.32
Offsides
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.311.984.29safe1.10–3.520.82–3.141.92–6.66safer0.76–3.860.48–3.471.24–7.34
Yellow cards
31%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.883.39safe0.45–2.570.76–3.001.21–5.56safer0.18–2.840.47–3.290.65–6.12
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.913.106.01safe1.49–4.321.55–4.663.04–8.98safer1.10–4.711.12–5.092.22–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 7.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.08–2.29 | 2.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 9.00 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.90–6.61 2.40–7.11 | — | 3.71 2.00–5.42 1.54–5.89 | — | 8.47 4.91–12.03 3.94–13.00 | — | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.81 10.10–17.51 9.07–18.54 | — | 12.73 9.35–16.11 8.42–17.04 | — | 26.54 19.46–33.62 17.50–35.58 | — | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 9.79 7.28–12.31 6.41–13.17 | — | 5.72 3.42–8.02 2.62–8.82 | — | 15.51 10.70–20.33 9.03–21.99 | — | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.96–5.13 1.43–5.66 | — | 2.36 0.94–3.77 0.45–4.26 | — | 5.90 2.90–8.90 1.88–9.92 | — | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.31–7.72 2.72–8.32 | — | 4.02 2.05–6.00 1.51–6.54 | — | 9.54 5.36–13.72 4.23–14.86 | — | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 54.90 48.59–61.22 46.99–62.82 | — | 43.83 37.51–50.15 35.91–51.74 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 460 395–526 377–543 | — | 351 286–415 269–433 | — | 811 681–941 646–976 | — | 82% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.70 71.48–79.91 70.18–81.21 | — | 65.80 61.29–70.31 59.96–71.64 | — | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.79 7.93–13.64 7.04–14.53 | — | 10.92 7.98–13.87 7.06–14.79 | — | 21.71 15.91–27.51 14.10–29.32 | — | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.31 1.10–3.52 0.76–3.86 | — | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.48–3.47 | — | 4.29 1.92–6.66 1.24–7.34 | — | 46% 20% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.45–2.57 0.18–2.84 | — | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | — | 3.39 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | — | 31% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | — | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.49–4.32 1.10–4.71 | — | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.09 | — | 6.01 3.04–8.98 2.22–9.80 | — | 39% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+