FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.412.88safe0.51–2.440.55–2.261.06–4.70safer0.25–2.700.30–2.510.55–5.21actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.459.76safe3.46–7.172.74–6.166.20–13.33safer2.96–7.672.27–6.635.23–14.30
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8610.0126.88safe13.16–20.576.64–13.3919.80–33.96safer12.13–21.605.71–14.3217.83–35.92
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction5.069.0914.16safe2.55–7.586.79–11.399.34–18.97safer1.68–8.445.99–12.197.68–20.63
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.696.54safe1.27–4.442.27–5.103.54–9.54safer0.74–4.971.79–5.592.52–10.56
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.944.9110.85safe3.74–8.152.93–6.896.67–15.04safer3.14–8.742.39–7.425.54–16.17
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.7355.97safe37.42–50.0549.65–62.29safer35.82–51.6548.06–63.89
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction299450750safe234–365386–515620–880safer217–382368–533585–915
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction61.4572.90safe57.23–65.6668.39–77.41safer55.93–66.9667.06–78.74
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8413.1224.95safe8.98–14.6910.17–16.0619.15–30.76safer8.09–15.589.25–16.9817.35–32.56
Offsides
28%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.883.24safe0.15–2.570.71–3.040.86–5.61safer0.00–2.910.38–3.370.19–6.29
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.823.34safe0.47–2.580.70–2.941.17–5.52safer0.19–2.850.41–3.230.61–6.08
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.040.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.055.25safe0.78–3.611.50–4.612.28–8.22safer0.39–4.001.07–5.041.46–9.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 4.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.30–2.51 | 2.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 6.00 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.46–7.17 2.96–7.67 | — | 4.45 2.74–6.16 2.27–6.63 | — | 9.76 6.20–13.33 5.23–14.30 | — | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 16.86 13.16–20.57 12.13–21.60 | — | 10.01 6.64–13.39 5.71–14.32 | — | 26.88 19.80–33.96 17.83–35.92 | — | 89% |
| Shots in box | 5.06 2.55–7.58 1.68–8.44 | — | 9.09 6.79–11.39 5.99–12.19 | — | 14.16 9.34–18.97 7.68–20.63 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 1.27–4.44 0.74–4.97 | — | 3.69 2.27–5.10 1.79–5.59 | — | 6.54 3.54–9.54 2.52–10.56 | — | 30% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 5.94 3.74–8.15 3.14–8.74 | — | 4.91 2.93–6.89 2.39–7.42 | — | 10.85 6.67–15.04 5.54–16.17 | — | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 43.73 37.42–50.05 35.82–51.65 | — | 55.97 49.65–62.29 48.06–63.89 | — | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 299 234–365 217–382 | — | 450 386–515 368–533 | — | 750 620–880 585–915 | — | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.45 57.23–65.66 55.93–66.96 | — | 72.90 68.39–77.41 67.06–78.74 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.84 8.98–14.69 8.09–15.58 | — | 13.12 10.17–16.06 9.25–16.98 | — | 24.95 19.15–30.76 17.35–32.56 | — | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.15–2.57 0.00–2.91 | — | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | — | 3.24 0.86–5.61 0.19–6.29 | — | 28% 23% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.58 0.19–2.85 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.34 1.17–5.52 0.61–6.08 | — | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | — | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.78–3.61 0.39–4.00 | — | 3.05 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | — | 5.25 2.28–8.22 1.46–9.04 | — | 27% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.