FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.072.57safe0.54–2.460.21–1.930.75–4.39safer0.28–2.720.00–2.170.24–4.90actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.199.53safe3.49–7.202.49–5.905.97–13.10safer2.99–7.702.02–6.375.00–14.07
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3112.7627.07safe10.61–18.019.38–16.1419.99–34.15safer9.58–19.058.45–17.0718.02–36.11
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.706.0115.71safe7.19–12.223.71–8.3110.89–20.53safer6.32–13.092.91–9.119.23–22.19
Blocked shots
55%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.592.736.33safe2.01–5.171.32–4.153.33–9.32safer1.47–5.710.83–4.642.31–10.34
Corners
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.648.04safe2.19–6.601.66–5.623.85–12.22safer1.60–7.201.12–6.162.72–13.35
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction56.9843.16safe50.66–63.3036.84–49.48safer49.07–64.8935.24–51.08
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction506338844safe441–571273–402714–974safer423–589256–420679–1009
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction77.3265.89safe73.10–81.5361.38–70.39safer71.80–82.8460.05–71.72
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4011.3722.78safe8.55–14.268.43–14.3216.97–28.58safer7.66–15.157.51–15.2415.17–30.38
Offsides
36%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.803.48safe0.47–2.890.63–2.961.11–5.85safer0.13–3.240.30–3.290.43–6.53
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.843.18safe0.28–2.390.72–2.961.00–5.36safer0.01–2.660.43–3.250.44–5.92
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.875.59safe1.31–4.141.31–4.422.62–8.56safer0.92–4.530.88–4.851.80–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 4.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.17 | 1.00 | 2.57 0.75–4.39 0.24–4.90 | 5.00 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.34 3.49–7.20 2.99–7.70 | — | 4.19 2.49–5.90 2.02–6.37 | — | 9.53 5.97–13.10 5.00–14.07 | — | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.31 10.61–18.01 9.58–19.05 | — | 12.76 9.38–16.14 8.45–17.07 | — | 27.07 19.99–34.15 18.02–36.11 | — | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.70 7.19–12.22 6.32–13.09 | — | 6.01 3.71–8.31 2.91–9.11 | — | 15.71 10.89–20.53 9.23–22.19 | — | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 2.01–5.17 1.47–5.71 | — | 2.73 1.32–4.15 0.83–4.64 | — | 6.33 3.33–9.32 2.31–10.34 | — | 55% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.60 1.60–7.20 | — | 3.64 1.66–5.62 1.12–6.16 | — | 8.04 3.85–12.22 2.72–13.35 | — | 53% 14% 33% |
| Possession % | 56.98 50.66–63.30 49.07–64.89 | — | 43.16 36.84–49.48 35.24–51.08 | — | — | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 506 441–571 423–589 | — | 338 273–402 256–420 | — | 844 714–974 679–1009 | — | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.32 73.10–81.53 71.80–82.84 | — | 65.89 61.38–70.39 60.05–71.72 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.40 8.55–14.26 7.66–15.15 | — | 11.37 8.43–14.32 7.51–15.24 | — | 22.78 16.97–28.58 15.17–30.38 | — | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.47–2.89 0.13–3.24 | — | 1.80 0.63–2.96 0.30–3.29 | — | 3.48 1.11–5.85 0.43–6.53 | — | 36% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.34 0.28–2.39 0.01–2.66 | — | 1.84 0.72–2.96 0.43–3.25 | — | 3.18 1.00–5.36 0.44–5.92 | — | 28% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | — | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.31–4.14 0.92–4.53 | — | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | — | 5.59 2.62–8.56 1.80–9.38 | — | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.