FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.292.80safe0.55–2.480.43–2.150.98–4.62safer0.29–2.740.18–2.390.47–5.13actual1.004.005.00
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.558.32safe2.92–6.631.84–5.264.76–11.89safer2.42–7.131.38–5.733.79–12.85
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction13.729.4123.13safe10.02–17.426.03–12.7916.05–30.21safer8.99–18.465.10–13.7214.09–32.18
Shots in box
13%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction3.897.0210.92safe1.38–6.414.72–9.326.10–15.74safer0.51–7.273.93–10.124.44–17.40
Blocked shots
24%
17%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.984.94safe0.37–3.541.57–4.391.94–7.93safer0.00–4.071.08–4.880.92–8.96
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.284.0710.35safe4.07–8.482.09–6.056.16–14.53safer3.48–9.081.56–6.595.03–15.66
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.1050.06safe42.78–55.4143.74–56.38safer41.18–57.0142.14–57.97
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction389387776safe324–454322–451646–906safer306–472304–469611–941
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction68.7369.17safe64.52–72.9564.66–73.67safer63.22–74.2563.33–75.00
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1513.9326.08safe9.29–15.0110.98–16.8820.28–31.88safer8.41–15.8910.07–17.7918.47–33.68
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.053.51safe0.26–2.670.89–3.211.14–5.89safer0.00–3.020.55–3.540.47–6.56
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.963.50safe0.48–2.590.84–3.081.32–5.67safer0.21–2.860.55–3.370.76–6.24
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.065.38safe0.91–3.741.50–4.612.41–8.35safer0.52–4.131.07–5.041.59–9.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.55–2.48 0.29–2.74 | 1.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.18–2.39 | 4.00 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.47–5.13 | 5.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.92–6.63 2.42–7.13 | — | 3.55 1.84–5.26 1.38–5.73 | — | 8.32 4.76–11.89 3.79–12.85 | — | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.72 10.02–17.42 8.99–18.46 | — | 9.41 6.03–12.79 5.10–13.72 | — | 23.13 16.05–30.21 14.09–32.18 | — | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 3.89 1.38–6.41 0.51–7.27 | — | 7.02 4.72–9.32 3.93–10.12 | — | 10.92 6.10–15.74 4.44–17.40 | — | 13% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 1.96 0.37–3.54 0.00–4.07 | — | 2.98 1.57–4.39 1.08–4.88 | — | 4.94 1.94–7.93 0.92–8.96 | — | 24% 17% 59% |
| Corners | 6.28 4.07–8.48 3.48–9.08 | — | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.56–6.59 | — | 10.35 6.16–14.53 5.03–15.66 | — | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 49.10 42.78–55.41 41.18–57.01 | — | 50.06 43.74–56.38 42.14–57.97 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 389 324–454 306–472 | — | 387 322–451 304–469 | — | 776 646–906 611–941 | — | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.73 64.52–72.95 63.22–74.25 | — | 69.17 64.66–73.67 63.33–75.00 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.29–15.01 8.41–15.89 | — | 13.93 10.98–16.88 10.07–17.79 | — | 26.08 20.28–31.88 18.47–33.68 | — | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.26–2.67 0.00–3.02 | — | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.55–3.54 | — | 3.51 1.14–5.89 0.47–6.56 | — | 28% 21% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.59 0.21–2.86 | — | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | — | 3.50 1.32–5.67 0.76–6.24 | — | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.32 0.91–3.74 0.52–4.13 | — | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | — | 5.38 2.41–8.35 1.59–9.17 | — | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.