FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.062.66safe0.64–2.560.20–1.920.84–4.48safer0.38–2.820.00–2.170.33–4.99actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.413.588.99safe3.56–7.271.87–5.295.43–12.56safer3.06–7.771.40–5.764.46–13.52
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.199.5825.78safe12.49–19.906.20–12.9618.69–32.86safer11.46–20.935.27–13.8916.73–34.82
Shots in box
14%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction2.625.067.68safe0.11–5.142.75–7.362.86–12.49safer0.00–6.001.96–8.151.20–14.16
Blocked shots
23%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.343.80safe0.00–3.040.93–3.760.80–6.80safer0.00–3.580.44–4.240.00–7.82
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.403.929.32safe3.20–7.611.94–5.895.13–13.50safer2.60–8.201.40–6.434.00–14.63
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.2347.27safe45.92–58.5540.96–53.59safer44.32–60.1539.36–55.19
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction436360796safe371–501296–425666–926safer353–519278–442631–961
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction68.5068.06safe64.28–72.7163.55–72.56safer62.98–74.0162.22–73.89
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2912.8725.16safe9.43–15.159.92–15.8119.35–30.96safer8.55–16.039.00–16.7317.55–32.76
Offsides
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.723.39safe0.46–2.880.56–2.891.02–5.77safer0.12–3.230.23–3.220.35–6.44
Yellow cards
30%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.893.38safe0.43–2.540.77–3.011.20–5.55safer0.16–2.810.48–3.300.64–6.12
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.075.68safe1.20–4.031.51–4.622.71–8.65safer0.81–4.421.08–5.051.89–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.56 0.38–2.82 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 2.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.33–4.99 | 3.00 | 50% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.41 3.56–7.27 3.06–7.77 | — | 3.58 1.87–5.29 1.40–5.76 | — | 8.99 5.43–12.56 4.46–13.52 | — | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.19 12.49–19.90 11.46–20.93 | — | 9.58 6.20–12.96 5.27–13.89 | — | 25.78 18.69–32.86 16.73–34.82 | — | 89% |
| Shots in box | 2.62 0.11–5.14 0.00–6.00 | — | 5.06 2.75–7.36 1.96–8.15 | — | 7.68 2.86–12.49 1.20–14.16 | — | 14% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 1.46 0.00–3.04 0.00–3.58 | — | 2.34 0.93–3.76 0.44–4.24 | — | 3.80 0.80–6.80 0.00–7.82 | — | 23% 19% 57% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.20–7.61 2.60–8.20 | — | 3.92 1.94–5.89 1.40–6.43 | — | 9.32 5.13–13.50 4.00–14.63 | — | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.23 45.92–58.55 44.32–60.15 | — | 47.27 40.96–53.59 39.36–55.19 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 436 371–501 353–519 | — | 360 296–425 278–442 | — | 796 666–926 631–961 | — | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.50 64.28–72.71 62.98–74.01 | — | 68.06 63.55–72.56 62.22–73.89 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.43–15.15 8.55–16.03 | — | 12.87 9.92–15.81 9.00–16.73 | — | 25.16 19.35–30.96 17.55–32.76 | — | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.12–3.23 | — | 1.72 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | — | 3.39 1.02–5.77 0.35–6.44 | — | 38% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.81 | — | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | — | 3.38 1.20–5.55 0.64–6.12 | — | 30% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | — | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.20–4.03 0.81–4.42 | — | 3.07 1.51–4.62 1.08–5.05 | — | 5.68 2.71–8.65 1.89–9.47 | — | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+