FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.262.67safe0.45–2.380.40–2.120.85–4.49safer0.19–2.640.15–2.360.34–5.00actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.379.10safe2.87–6.582.67–6.085.54–12.66safer2.37–7.082.20–6.554.57–13.63
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7112.1824.89safe9.00–16.418.80–15.5617.80–31.97safer7.97–17.447.87–16.4915.84–33.93
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.473.7411.21safe4.95–9.991.44–6.046.39–16.03safer4.09–10.850.64–6.844.73–17.69
Blocked shots
61%
17%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.761.664.42safe1.17–4.340.24–3.071.42–7.41safer0.64–4.880.00–3.560.40–8.44
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.179.17safe2.80–7.212.19–6.144.99–13.36safer2.21–7.811.65–6.683.86–14.49
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction51.9146.64safe45.59–58.2240.32–52.96safer43.99–59.8238.72–54.56
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction409355765safe344–475291–420635–895safer326–492273–437600–930
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction70.5664.60safe66.35–74.7860.09–69.11safer65.05–76.0858.76–70.44
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3912.2623.65safe8.53–14.259.31–15.2017.84–29.45safer7.65–15.138.39–16.1216.04–31.25
Offsides
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.074.28safe0.99–3.410.91–3.241.90–6.65safer0.65–3.760.58–3.571.23–7.32
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.893.72safe0.77–2.880.77–3.011.54–5.89safer0.50–3.160.48–3.300.98–6.46
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.936.06safe1.72–4.551.37–4.483.09–9.03safer1.33–4.930.94–4.912.27–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.64 | 2.00 | 1.26 0.40–2.12 0.15–2.36 | 0.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.34–5.00 | 2.00 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.58 2.37–7.08 | — | 4.37 2.67–6.08 2.20–6.55 | — | 9.10 5.54–12.66 4.57–13.63 | — | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.71 9.00–16.41 7.97–17.44 | — | 12.18 8.80–15.56 7.87–16.49 | — | 24.89 17.80–31.97 15.84–33.93 | — | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.47 4.95–9.99 4.09–10.85 | — | 3.74 1.44–6.04 0.64–6.84 | — | 11.21 6.39–16.03 4.73–17.69 | — | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.76 1.17–4.34 0.64–4.88 | — | 1.66 0.24–3.07 0.00–3.56 | — | 4.42 1.42–7.41 0.40–8.44 | — | 61% 17% 22% |
| Corners | 5.01 2.80–7.21 2.21–7.81 | — | 4.17 2.19–6.14 1.65–6.68 | — | 9.17 4.99–13.36 3.86–14.49 | — | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.91 45.59–58.22 43.99–59.82 | — | 46.64 40.32–52.96 38.72–54.56 | — | — | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 409 344–475 326–492 | — | 355 291–420 273–437 | — | 765 635–895 600–930 | — | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.56 66.35–74.78 65.05–76.08 | — | 64.60 60.09–69.11 58.76–70.44 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.39 8.53–14.25 7.65–15.13 | — | 12.26 9.31–15.20 8.39–16.12 | — | 23.65 17.84–29.45 16.04–31.25 | — | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.20 0.99–3.41 0.65–3.76 | — | 2.07 0.91–3.24 0.58–3.57 | — | 4.28 1.90–6.65 1.23–7.32 | — | 42% 20% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.77–2.88 0.50–3.16 | — | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | — | 3.72 1.54–5.89 0.98–6.46 | — | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | — | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | — | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.72–4.55 1.33–4.93 | — | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.94–4.91 | — | 6.06 3.09–9.03 2.27–9.85 | — | 45% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+