FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.232.70safe0.51–2.440.37–2.090.88–4.53safer0.25–2.700.12–2.340.38–5.03actual0.006.006.00
Shots on target
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.469.38safe3.07–6.782.75–6.165.82–12.95safer2.57–7.282.28–6.634.85–13.91
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8510.0421.89safe8.15–15.556.66–13.4114.80–28.97safer7.12–16.585.73–14.3412.84–30.93
Shots in box
54%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.303.33safe0.00–4.550.00–3.600.00–8.15safer0.00–5.420.00–4.400.00–9.81
Blocked shots
24%
54%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction0.390.370.76safe0.00–1.970.00–1.780.00–3.76safer0.00–2.510.00–2.270.00–4.78
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.539.79safe3.06–7.472.55–6.515.61–13.97safer2.46–8.062.01–7.044.47–15.11
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction51.6347.63safe45.31–57.9541.32–53.95safer43.72–59.5439.72–55.55
Passes
62%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction413375788safe348–478311–440658–918safer330–496293–457623–953
Pass accuracy %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction69.4367.82safe65.22–73.6563.31–72.33safer63.92–74.9561.98–73.66
Fouls
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1811.7120.88safe6.32–12.038.76–14.6515.08–26.69safer5.43–12.927.85–15.5713.28–28.49
Offsides
34%
42%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction0.680.521.21safe0.00–1.890.00–1.680.00–3.58safer0.00–2.240.00–2.020.00–4.26
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.823.33safe0.46–2.570.70–2.941.16–5.51safer0.19–2.840.41–3.230.59–6.07
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.312.83safe0.10–2.930.00–2.870.00–5.79safer0.00–3.320.00–3.300.00–6.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 0.00 | 1.23 0.37–2.09 0.12–2.34 | 6.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.38–5.03 | 6.00 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.78 2.57–7.28 | — | 4.46 2.75–6.16 2.28–6.63 | — | 9.38 5.82–12.95 4.85–13.91 | — | 49% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 11.85 8.15–15.55 7.12–16.58 | — | 10.04 6.66–13.41 5.73–14.34 | — | 21.89 14.80–28.97 12.84–30.93 | — | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 2.04 0.00–4.55 0.00–5.42 | — | 1.30 0.00–3.60 0.00–4.40 | — | 3.33 0.00–8.15 0.00–9.81 | — | 54% 21% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 0.39 0.00–1.97 0.00–2.51 | — | 0.37 0.00–1.78 0.00–2.27 | — | 0.76 0.00–3.76 0.00–4.78 | — | 24% 54% 22% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.06–7.47 2.46–8.06 | — | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.01–7.04 | — | 9.79 5.61–13.97 4.47–15.11 | — | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.63 45.31–57.95 43.72–59.54 | — | 47.63 41.32–53.95 39.72–55.55 | — | — | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 413 348–478 330–496 | — | 375 311–440 293–457 | — | 788 658–918 623–953 | — | 62% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.43 65.22–73.65 63.92–74.95 | — | 67.82 63.31–72.33 61.98–73.66 | — | — | — | 56% 40% |
| Fouls | 9.18 6.32–12.03 5.43–12.92 | — | 11.71 8.76–14.65 7.85–15.57 | — | 20.88 15.08–26.69 13.28–28.49 | — | 25% 67% |
| Offsides | 0.68 0.00–1.89 0.00–2.24 | — | 0.52 0.00–1.68 0.00–2.02 | — | 1.21 0.00–3.58 0.00–4.26 | — | 34% 42% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.57 0.19–2.84 | — | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | — | 3.33 1.16–5.51 0.59–6.07 | — | 32% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | — | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | — | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | — | 86% |
| GK saves | 1.51 0.10–2.93 0.00–3.32 | — | 1.31 0.00–2.87 0.00–3.30 | — | 2.83 0.00–5.79 0.00–6.61 | — | 42% 25% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.