FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
46%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.142.67safe0.57–2.490.28–2.000.85–4.49safer0.31–2.750.04–2.250.34–5.00actual6.001.007.00
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.439.42safe4.14–7.851.72–5.145.86–12.98safer3.64–8.351.25–5.614.89–13.95
Total shots
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5913.8128.40safe10.89–18.2910.44–17.1921.32–35.49safer9.86–19.329.50–18.1219.36–37.45
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.415.2314.64safe6.90–11.932.93–7.539.82–19.46safer6.03–12.792.13–8.328.16–21.12
Blocked shots
63%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.602.315.91safe2.02–5.190.90–3.732.92–8.91safer1.48–5.720.41–4.211.90–9.93
Corners
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.744.097.83safe1.53–5.942.11–6.073.65–12.01safer0.94–6.541.58–6.612.51–13.15
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.2043.38safe49.88–62.5137.06–49.70safer48.28–64.1135.47–51.30
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction499334834safe434–565270–399704–963safer416–582252–416668–999
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction80.5567.75safe76.33–84.7663.25–72.26safer75.03–86.0661.92–73.59
Fouls
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1915.8727.06safe8.34–14.0512.92–18.8121.26–32.86safer7.45–14.9412.00–19.7319.46–34.67
Offsides
43%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.753.71safe0.74–3.160.59–2.921.33–6.08safer0.40–3.510.26–3.250.66–6.76
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.133.68safe0.50–2.611.01–3.251.50–5.86safer0.23–2.880.72–3.540.94–6.42
Red cards
18%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.220.100.32safe0.06–0.370.00–0.290.00–0.66safer0.00–0.520.00–0.440.00–0.96
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.725.84safe1.71–4.541.16–4.272.87–8.81safer1.32–4.930.73–4.702.05–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.57–2.49 0.31–2.75 | 6.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 1.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.34–5.00 | 7.00 | 46% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.99 4.14–7.85 3.64–8.35 | — | 3.43 1.72–5.14 1.25–5.61 | — | 9.42 5.86–12.98 4.89–13.95 | — | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.89–18.29 9.86–19.32 | — | 13.81 10.44–17.19 9.50–18.12 | — | 28.40 21.32–35.49 19.36–37.45 | — | 52% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.41 6.90–11.93 6.03–12.79 | — | 5.23 2.93–7.53 2.13–8.32 | — | 14.64 9.82–19.46 8.16–21.12 | — | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 2.02–5.19 1.48–5.72 | — | 2.31 0.90–3.73 0.41–4.21 | — | 5.91 2.92–8.91 1.90–9.93 | — | 63% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 3.74 1.53–5.94 0.94–6.54 | — | 4.09 2.11–6.07 1.58–6.61 | — | 7.83 3.65–12.01 2.51–13.15 | — | 38% 14% 48% |
| Possession % | 56.20 49.88–62.51 48.28–64.11 | — | 43.38 37.06–49.70 35.47–51.30 | — | — | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 499 434–565 416–582 | — | 334 270–399 252–416 | — | 834 704–963 668–999 | — | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.55 76.33–84.76 75.03–86.06 | — | 67.75 63.25–72.26 61.92–73.59 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.19 8.34–14.05 7.45–14.94 | — | 15.87 12.92–18.81 12.00–19.73 | — | 27.06 21.26–32.86 19.46–34.67 | — | 16% 79% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.40–3.51 | — | 1.75 0.59–2.92 0.26–3.25 | — | 3.71 1.33–6.08 0.66–6.76 | — | 43% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.61 0.23–2.88 | — | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | — | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.94–6.42 | — | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.22 0.06–0.37 0.00–0.52 | — | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | — | 0.32 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.96 | — | 18% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.71–4.54 1.32–4.93 | — | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.70 | — | 5.84 2.87–8.81 2.05–9.63 | — | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+