FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffsquad not published · form-based estimateGoals
41%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.412.94safe0.57–2.500.55–2.271.12–4.77safer0.31–2.760.30–2.510.62–5.27actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.529.57safe3.19–6.912.81–6.236.01–13.13safer2.70–7.412.34–6.695.04–14.10
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3713.0226.39safe9.67–17.079.64–16.3919.30–33.47safer8.64–18.108.71–17.3317.34–35.43
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction9.004.2913.29safe6.48–11.511.99–6.608.47–18.11safer5.62–12.381.20–7.396.81–19.77
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.265.80safe1.95–5.120.85–3.682.80–8.80safer1.42–5.660.36–4.161.78–9.82
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.699.86safe2.97–7.382.71–6.665.68–14.05safer2.38–7.982.17–7.204.55–15.18
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction51.7447.30safe45.42–58.0640.99–53.62safer43.82–59.6539.39–55.22
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction440352792safe375–506287–416662–922safer357–523269–434627–957
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction73.9766.19safe69.75–78.1861.69–70.70safer68.45–79.4860.36–72.03
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5112.9823.49safe7.65–13.3610.04–15.9317.68–29.29safer6.76–14.259.12–16.8415.88–31.09
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.943.83safe0.67–3.090.78–3.111.45–6.20safer0.33–3.440.45–3.440.78–6.88
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.103.74safe0.58–2.690.98–3.221.56–5.92safer0.31–2.970.69–3.511.00–6.48
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.825.62safe1.39–4.221.27–4.372.66–8.59safer1.00–4.610.83–4.811.83–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.50 0.31–2.76 | 3.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.27 0.30–2.51 | 0.00 | 2.94 1.12–4.77 0.62–5.27 | 3.00 | 41% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.91 2.70–7.41 | — | 4.52 2.81–6.23 2.34–6.69 | — | 9.57 6.01–13.13 5.04–14.10 | — | 50% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.37 9.67–17.07 8.64–18.10 | — | 13.02 9.64–16.39 8.71–17.33 | — | 26.39 19.30–33.47 17.34–35.43 | — | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.48–11.51 5.62–12.38 | — | 4.29 1.99–6.60 1.20–7.39 | — | 13.29 8.47–18.11 6.81–19.77 | — | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.95–5.12 1.42–5.66 | — | 2.26 0.85–3.68 0.36–4.16 | — | 5.80 2.80–8.80 1.78–9.82 | — | 62% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.38 2.38–7.98 | — | 4.69 2.71–6.66 2.17–7.20 | — | 9.86 5.68–14.05 4.55–15.18 | — | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 51.74 45.42–58.06 43.82–59.65 | — | 47.30 40.99–53.62 39.39–55.22 | — | — | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 440 375–506 357–523 | — | 352 287–416 269–434 | — | 792 662–922 627–957 | — | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.97 69.75–78.18 68.45–79.48 | — | 66.19 61.69–70.70 60.36–72.03 | — | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 10.51 7.65–13.36 6.76–14.25 | — | 12.98 10.04–15.93 9.12–16.84 | — | 23.49 17.68–29.29 15.88–31.09 | — | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.44 | — | 1.94 0.78–3.11 0.45–3.44 | — | 3.83 1.45–6.20 0.78–6.88 | — | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.58–2.69 0.31–2.97 | — | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | — | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.48 | — | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.43 | — | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | — | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | — | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.39–4.22 1.00–4.61 | — | 2.82 1.27–4.37 0.83–4.81 | — | 5.62 2.66–8.59 1.83–9.41 | — | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.