FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·
FA Cup·2nd Round Qualifying·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.032.38safe0.39–2.310.17–1.890.56–4.21safer0.13–2.580.00–2.140.05–4.71actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.099.36safe3.41–7.122.39–5.805.80–12.92safer2.91–7.621.92–6.274.83–13.89
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4010.9624.36safe9.70–17.117.58–14.3417.28–31.45safer8.67–18.146.65–15.2715.32–33.41
Shots in box
14%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.428.9014.32safe2.91–7.946.60–11.209.51–19.14safer2.04–8.805.80–12.007.84–20.80
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.243.446.69safe1.66–4.832.03–4.863.69–9.68safer1.12–5.361.54–5.342.67–10.70
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.409.26safe2.66–7.072.42–6.385.08–13.45safer2.06–7.661.89–6.923.95–14.58
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.3549.25safe44.03–56.6742.93–55.57safer42.43–58.2641.33–57.16
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction395366761safe330–460301–430631–891safer312–478284–448596–926
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction66.7069.67safe62.49–70.9265.16–74.18safer61.18–72.2263.83–75.51
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7112.8424.55safe8.85–14.579.89–15.7818.75–30.35safer7.97–15.458.98–16.7016.94–32.16
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.793.55safe0.55–2.970.63–2.951.18–5.92safer0.21–3.320.29–3.280.50–6.60
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.903.29safe0.33–2.450.78–3.021.12–5.47safer0.06–2.720.49–3.310.55–6.03
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.233.045.27safe0.82–3.641.49–4.592.30–8.24safer0.43–4.031.05–5.031.48–9.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.31 0.13–2.58 | 0.00 | 1.03 0.17–1.89 0.00–2.14 | 3.00 | 2.38 0.56–4.21 0.05–4.71 | 3.00 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.26 3.41–7.12 2.91–7.62 | — | 4.09 2.39–5.80 1.92–6.27 | — | 9.36 5.80–12.92 4.83–13.89 | — | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.70–17.11 8.67–18.14 | — | 10.96 7.58–14.34 6.65–15.27 | — | 24.36 17.28–31.45 15.32–33.41 | — | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 5.42 2.91–7.94 2.04–8.80 | — | 8.90 6.60–11.20 5.80–12.00 | — | 14.32 9.51–19.14 7.84–20.80 | — | 14% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.66–4.83 1.12–5.36 | — | 3.44 2.03–4.86 1.54–5.34 | — | 6.69 3.69–9.68 2.67–10.70 | — | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.66–7.07 2.06–7.66 | — | 4.40 2.42–6.38 1.89–6.92 | — | 9.26 5.08–13.45 3.95–14.58 | — | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 50.35 44.03–56.67 42.43–58.26 | — | 49.25 42.93–55.57 41.33–57.16 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 395 330–460 312–478 | — | 366 301–430 284–448 | — | 761 631–891 596–926 | — | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.70 62.49–70.92 61.18–72.22 | — | 69.67 65.16–74.18 63.83–75.51 | — | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.85–14.57 7.97–15.45 | — | 12.84 9.89–15.78 8.98–16.70 | — | 24.55 18.75–30.35 16.94–32.16 | — | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.32 | — | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.29–3.28 | — | 3.55 1.18–5.92 0.50–6.60 | — | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.33–2.45 0.06–2.72 | — | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | — | 3.29 1.12–5.47 0.55–6.03 | — | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | — | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | — | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | — | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.82–3.64 0.43–4.03 | — | 3.04 1.49–4.59 1.05–5.03 | — | 5.27 2.30–8.24 1.48–9.06 | — | 28% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+